Maybe some of us realize the seriousness of the situation, but the majority of Turks do not realize the fact that in the next few years, developments in northern Iraq will be the most talked-about issue in the country.

  Our agenda, both medium and long term, will be dominated by northern Iraq's Kurdistan.

  Kurds in northern Iraq, maybe through brilliant planning or due to the boost they received from the winds of change sweeping through the region, have gotten the best opportunity in their history.

  Everything is happening the way they have wanted to since the end of the first Gulf war in 1991. They couldn't have planned it better themselves.

  They were lucky.

  They also became aware of the situation and put an end to their internal bickering. Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani stopped their fighting, which looked more like clan fights over who would get more bribes from which customs gate. They may still hate each other, but they outwardly have demonstrated an exemplary stance of unity.

  They disarmed and decided not to kill each other anymore. They reached an agreement. Some time in the future they may try to dominate each other once again, but today they are smartly proceeding towards their common goal.

  Their objective is independence.

  It may happen in 10, 20 or maybe 30 years, but eventually they will be either independent or a part of a confederation of Iraq.

What are their chances?

  Developments in Iraq are in favor of the Kurds in northern Iraq.

  In the short term the Americans will never allow the breakup of Iraq, and consequently the Kurds have no chance of becoming independent. They failed to get all they wanted in the draft constitution; however, developments are still favorable for them.

  1. Shiites are divided amongst themselves and are fighting against the Sunnis. The Sunnis and the Shiites do not see the bigger picture and are fighting over their own interests. They will eventually lead to the division of Iraq.

  2. Shiites and Sunnis will continue to fight the Americans and eventually the United States will have to base itself in the north in order to keep a hold on Iraq. Kurds will come under the protection of the United States and will become their closest allies.

  In short, the Kurds will win.

  And they will win because of the winds of change sweeping through the region and the inability of the Shiites and Sunnis to reach an understanding.

  Everything is plain for all to see.

  Something else may happen.

  The Shiites may decide to put their difference aside and think of their long-term objectives. The winds of change may alter their direction and the Shiites may realize the fact that the division of Iraq is not in their long-term interest.

  The Shiites have yet to show any sign of realization of what's about to happen.

What can Turkey do?

  What can Turkey do, given the current circumstances?

  It may try to show the Shiites what is going to happen, but it doesn't have the power to influence all the groups. Even though we can reach all groups, including the Sunnis, the exchanges there are based on things beyond Turkey's power. They are based on who will govern Iraq in the future or who will dominate the Shiites. No group wants to listen to anyone.

  So what should Turkey do, especially concerning the long-term goals?

  Should it interfere in the infighting among the Shiites? How would Turkey do it?

  Should it try to get closer to the Sunnis?

  Or should it try to alter its relations with the Kurds?

  Tomorrow, I will try to provide an answer to this.