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Barham Salih Warns of Regional War

Aug 29, 2007

Reuters


An early pullout of American soldiers from Iraq would trigger a full-scale civil war and spark a wider conflict in the region, Iraq's deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, warned this week.

Salih said that was the message he gave a stream of US lawmakers visiting Baghdad in the lead-up to pivotal testimony that President George W Bush's top officials in Iraq will present to the US Congress in around two weeks.

"A premature withdrawal of troops from Iraq will be a disaster, not only for Iraq but for the region and the international community as a whole," Salih said this week.

"It will lead to an all-out civil war, it will lead to a regional war, in my opinion, because the fate of Iraq is crucial to the regional balance and to regional security."

Opposition Democrats and some senior Republicans have called for US troops to start leaving Iraq after more than four years of war that has killed 3,700 American soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis.

The US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and US ambassador Ryan Crocker are expected to appear before Congress in the second week of September.

Their testimony on Iraq's security and political situation could prompt a shift in Washington's Iraq policy.

Bush is under mounting pressure to show Iraq's weak and divided Shiite-led government that the US commitment is not open-ended. However, he has pleaded for patience and cited progress in recent months after a reduction in militant attacks.

In a speech last week Bu

sh sought to back his case for keeping US troops in Iraq by drawing parallels between Iraq and the Vietnam War.

From the beginning of the Iraq War, the White House has resisted analogies to Vietnam, apparently convinced that any association with such an unpopular venture was a political loser for the president.

When Bush was asked at a news conference in June 2006 whether he saw any parallels between Iraq and Vietnam, he replied with a simple "No."

That posture changed markedly with Bush's speech in Kansas City when he sought to focus the audience on what he described as the horrific consequences of US withdrawal - Vietnamese re-education camps in which many perished and the hundreds of thousands of people murdered by the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

The inference was clear: people who think America can get out of Iraq with minimal human costs are sadly mistaken.

"Whatever your position is on that debate," Bush said, "one unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America's withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like `boat people,' `re-education camps' and `killing fields."'

Salih also said Iraq's 350,000-strong forces were not ready to assume full responsibility for security.

Debate in Washington over the war and the failure of Iraq's government to use the breathing space provided by extra US troops to foster reconciliation has become so charged that some Democrats including presidential hopeful Senator Hillary Clinton have called for Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki to be replaced. Salih said such comments were unhelpful.

"Those who are demanding the replacement of Mr Maliki need to offer an alternative, because changing the government just for the sake of it without offering a credible alternative that can turn things for the better will not be useful," he said.

Asked if the collapse of Maliki's government would plunge the country deeper into crisis, Salih said: "In the absence of a credible alternative, a better alternative, it would be problematic, chaotic. In the context of Iraq, when you talk about problems, you are talking serious problems."

He repeatedly said there were no quick fixes to Iraq's woes.

Some key laws could be ratified by parliament by the end of the year, Salih said.

These included a draft law that will ease restrictions on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party from joining the civil service and the military. Many members are Sunni Arabs who feel persecuted by Maliki's government. That timeline will likely prove too long for US lawmakers, who are demanding concrete progress on political benchmarks seen as vital to bridging the deep divide between warring Shiites and minority Sunni Arabs.

Parliament reconvenes on September 4 after a month-long recess.

The government has yet to present any of the key draft laws, including draft legislation that aims at equitable sharing of Iraq's vast oil wealth among its different sects and ethnic groups.

Salih said: "If we decided to go and present these laws, probably we will be able to get a majority on most of them," but he added that this would not be enough.

"We are in a system where there must be a much wider margin because these laws are designed to bring about national unity. It's not just about majority rule," he said.

 

 


 

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