KurdistanObserver.com

Michael Rubin: Kurds And Shia To Lose Seats In Next Election

The elections in Iraq: Michael Rubin
Interviewed by Eric Black, Star Tribune
December 11, 2005

Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute studies Arab democracy and the politics of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. He travels frequently to the Mideast and was based in Iraq after the U.S. invasion, first working for the Pentagon, then as a political adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. He will be back in Iraq soon after election day to observe the efforts to form a governing coalition.

What he thought before the war:

He generally supported it.

The significance of Thursday’s vote:

Can’t really say until we see how the seats are distributed and what kinds of coalitions are possible. This will be messy, but democracy is messy.

His predictions of the election outcome:

I expect the Shia list [the United Iraqi Alliance, the main coalition of Shiite religious parties] to lose a lot of seats compared to January. They’re the incumbents and they haven’t delivered. That will cost them.You should be skeptical of what you read about Sistani’s endorsement. [Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a leading Shiite cleric, is reported to have issued a veiled endorsement of the UIA.] His political influence is often overstated.

The Kurds will also lose ground. The Kurdish turnout in January was extraordinary. But if you’re having three elections in one year, there’s only so many times you’re going to carry your grandmother over the mountains to vote. Counting the votes by province this time is also likely to help the Sunni parties and hurt the Kurds. Plus, the Kurdistan Islamic Union, which is the local Kurdish version of the Muslim Brotherhood, has left the main Kurdish coalition. They are not an insignificant party and their defection is worrisome enough to the major Kurdish parties that the KIU headquarters just got bombed.

I believe the Allawi ticket (the non-sectarian Iraqi National List, headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi) will do better than last time [In January’s election, Allawi’s ticket got 14 percent of the vote.] I was just in Jordan talking to people who are involved in the insrugency and they were all planning to vote for Allawi. He could get up to 20 percent.

Chalabi [Ahmed Chalabi, the former Bush administration favorite, currently a deputy prime minister, running atop a ticket called the National Congress Coalition] could get four or five percent of the vote, but that might position him to be a kingmaker.

How involved are the Americans in the election:

Our government officials have been told they’re not allowed to openly support a candidate. But Allawi has been a favorite of the Americans and I can tell you from my recent trip to the region, Allawi is awash in money. I don’t believe it’s coming directly from the U.S. government, but I suspect that the CIA is telling its contacts that 'we can’t give money to this guy and we would appreciate it if you would.’

The sentiment in Iraq isn’t really as much anti-American as it is pro-Iraqi nationalism. It doesn’t hurt Allawi as much as you might think to be perceived as the candidate who’s favored by the U.S. Allawi has more of a problem of being perceived as not authentically Iraqi. His security guards are Americans. Not U.S. troops, they’re private security contractors. But being surrounded and protected by American guards is costing him support. But the image of him the other day running out of a mosque with people throwing shoes at him is not at all helpful to a guy who presents himself as a strongman.

Possible coalitions for the next Iraqi government:

The Kurds and Allawi put together won’t have enough seats to form a secular government. And if anyone tries to form a coalition that cuts the Shiite religious parties out, I don’t see how you can avoid a full civil war. And I question whether the Kurds will strike a deal with the Islamists again.

Bear in mind, it only takes 50 percent of the parliament to bring a government down with a vote of no-confidence. That doesn’t necessarily mean you would get new elections. The existing parliament can keep trying to form a majority coalition.

They could definitely go through a period like Italy used to be, where you get a different government every few months. That wouldn’t be ideal for stability. But if the major power brokers don’t get a majority, none of them will want a strong prime minister. An Italian-style government-of-the-month scenario is a definite possiblity.

The future of the insurgency, U.S. troops and U.S. bases:

An insurgency tend to last about 10 years. This one will continue on its own track. And the political situation is on its own track. And they don’t really affect each other that much.

The U.S. military presence is also on its own track. If you listened carefully to what the president said in his speech the other day in Annapolis, and if you have heard what the Iraqis have been demanding for a long time, it’s fairly clear where that track is heading.

U.S. troops will be out of the Iraqi cities and out of the Iraqis daily lives. This is really what the Iraqis have been demanding for a long time.The troops will still be in Iraq and they will continue to provide a degree of stability. The U.S. will have fewer bases, further from the cities, but the U.S. will end up with bases in Iraq.