PKK will emerge stronger after this Turko-American fiasco
By:
Dr Zardasht Diaz
Feb 26, 2008
The decision to go after the PKK camps in the middle of winter when this is
normally a time of loll in violence caught may people by surprise. However,
looking deeper into some of the rationales behind it one can see the complexity
of factors that led Turks to embark on such aggressive venture.
Internal factors:
1) In February 2008
the Islamic dominated government of Erdogan passed the so called turban law in
parliament against the will of secular conservatives and military elite. This
was bound to create turmoil for the government. By shifting the public attention
from turban law to the invasion of southern Kurdistan Erdogan and his justice
and development party effectively silenced all anticipated opposition to this
subject.
2) AKP has been portrayed as being weak on the matters of national security by
the nationalist parties such as CHP and MHP as well as the military
establishment. Therefore, by sending troops to Iraqi Kurdistan Erdogan is
showing the Turks that he is as good as an army general.
External factors:
1) Turkey is being used by USA and Iraqi central government to harass Iraqi
Kurds. This may sound like a conspiracy theory but there is much truth to it. US
wants a strong central government in Baghdad something that Kurds are vehemently
against it. America wants to reign in Kurds on many critical issues such as
Kirkuk and the control of oil resources. This would satisfy Iraqi Arabs as well
as Americans who wish to deal with the central government in Baghdad rather than
regional administrations.
2) Iran factor: by allowing Turkish army to invade Kurdistan United States hopes
to gain the support of Turkey in any possible confrontation with Iran.
3) Turkey playing the regional superpower: By stretching its strength to the
limit the Turks want to show other countries in the region that they have a
strong military projection power. Turkish military claims that they can deploy
up to 50 thousand troops on a short notice. By sending troops in adverse weather
conditions Turks are imitating American military superiority.
The position of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) with respect to the
invasion is very questionable. Turkey claims that the attacks are being
coordinated with the KRG. The KRG has resorted to inflated rhetoric which are
mainly designed to calm down the Kurdish outrage. The KRG still has a lot of
power and influence in Baghdad despite many analysts arguing otherwise. However,
Kurdish leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan are acting more like regional warlords rather
than national leaders. Their aim is to protect their own domain of influence.
This invasion has all the hall marks of Israeli-Lebanese war of 2006. The
outcome of that war was arguably a comprehensive defeat for the Israeli army.
That war too was supported by the Bush administration with the aim of
eliminating Hezbollah and weakening of Iran by proxy. Unlike Hezbollah the PKK
does not represent a threat to US security and interests. Therefore, listing the
PKK as the enemy of the United States by the Bush administration has no logical
basis. In a sense the PKK has been used as a bargaining chip in a wider and more
sinister scheme which is to realign Turks with the United States against the
emerging threat from Tehran. This plan has serious shortcomings right from the
start. For any effective US initiative against Iran or Syria will require
Kurdish support for such a plan. There are 10 million Kurds in Iran alone and
without their support there is little that US can do against Iran.
By forcing the PKK out of Qandil mountain the organization will simply transform
its tactics into urban guerrilla warfare much like the current insurgency in
Iraq. The result will be more bloodshed and misery for both Kurds and Turks.
