MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Maria Appakova) - The Turkish General
Staff officially confirmed troop withdrawal from Iraqi Kurdistan a day after the
visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Ankara.
Having tacitly blessed Turkey's military operation on Iraqi territory, the
United States decided that its procrastination may harm its own interests.
Turkey launched a military operation on February 21. Its goal was to wipe out
military bases of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK). In the first days of the
mission, the United States urged Turkey not to drag out military actions, but
there was no deadline. In the last few days the situation started to change
rapidly.
On Thursday, U.S. President George W. Bush said: "The Turks need to move, move
quickly, achieve their objective and get out."
Gates was even more specific. On the way to Ankara, he said that the operation
should not last more than a week or two, and that he was talking about days, not
months. He urged the Turks to use political and economic methods in addition to
force. He reiterated the same words on February 28 after talking with his
Turkish counterpart Vecdi Gonul and other high-ranking Turkish politicians.
U.S. and European officials have suggested such ideas to Ankara more than once.
Moreover, settlement of the Kurdish issue is one of the conditions for the
discussion of Turkey's EU entry. But until recently, these words did not produce
results, and there were few hopes that they would.
However, Ankara stopped the operation although it declared shortly before that
there would be no deadline, and that the troops would not leave northern Iraq
until they eliminate the threat posed by the Kurdish militants.
This response was obvious because no country can fix a deadline for the conduct
of an anti-terrorist operation - developments are always unpredictable. Today,
militants have their bases in one place; tomorrow they move them to another.
Dozens of new fighters replaced those who were killed in action. A war can be
waged indefinitely. Turkey has been trying to put an end to the PKK armed
formations for 24 years. There is no guarantee that Ankara will score a success
abroad. Nevertheless it made the decision to withdraw its troops.
Indicatively, in its statement for the press, the Ministry of National Defense
emphasized that Ankara independently made decisions on the start and end of the
military operation. Apparently, the parallels between Gates' visit, Bush's words
and troop withdrawal are too obvious.
Turkey could not ignore Washington's urgent appeals for too long. It was free to
conduct its military operation until it clashed with U.S. interests in the
region. This could have happened any time, and it did happen.
Not a single regional force, including the Iraqi government, and the leaders of
the Iraqi Kurds objected to the goals set by Turkey for this mission. But armed
actions could upset the fragile political equilibrium in Iraq. It was enough for
Turkish troops to miss once and hit civilian facilities in northern Iraq instead
of PKK militants, or to drag out the operation. The Iraqi Kurds were not likely
to tolerate Turkish presence on their territory for a long time.
There are endless debates in Iraq about the delimitation of powers between the
center and the provinces. The biggest problem is relations with the Kurds, who
have been under Western protectorate since the early 1990s. De facto they have
been independent of Baghdad. They do not want to share their sovereignty, and
the Turkish invasion was a mobilizing factor for them.
Jurisdiction over Kirkuk is one of the most urgent and sensitive issues. Under
Saddam Hussein, this Kurdish city was made Arabian and Iraqi Kurdistan's
administrative borders were moved. Now the Kurds are demanding Kirkuk's return.
The city's Arab population and Turkomans, who are under Turkey's patronage, are
against this.
Disputes over Kirkuk are aggravated by the rich oil deposits.
A referendum on its destiny was scheduled for December 2007 but was moved to
next June for political reasons. If the Turkish operation were prolonged, this
question would hang in the air again. This would probably be in the interests of
Turkey and the United States, but it would not be worth irritating the Iraqi
Kurds because the stakes are too high - not only Kirkuk's future but also
adoption of a law on oil and the final version of the Iraqi constitution, not to
mention general stabilization in Iraq.
The situation in Iraq has been going from bad to worse. The United States is
trying to balance out its relations with all regional players but it might have
to pay too much for its political maneuvering.
