Think tank: Turkish
Invasion Would Fail To Uproot Kurdish Guerrilla
World Tribune
Jan 2, 2008
LONDON — The Kurdish Workers Party could survive a Turkish military invasion of
Iraqi Kurdistan, a report said.
The London-based Chatham House projected that the PKK would not be defeated by
the Turkish offensive in Iraqi Kurdistan. The British think tank said the PKK
reflects rising Kurdish nationalism throughout the region and maintains the
support of an estimated 30 million Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
"The PKK is a well-motivated force that enjoys local support and the protection
afforded by the inaccessible terrain of the border regions," Chatam said in a
report on Wednesday. "Turkey can probably never defeat the PKK and any further
incursions across the border are likely to be futile."
Entitled "The Kurdish Policy Imperative," the report came in wake of a Turkish
air and ground offensive in northern Iraq. The Turkish offensive has included
F-16 aircraft, artillery and special operations forces in the Kandil mountains.
Chatam said Turkey would not receive Iraqi government support in the effort to
eliminate the PKK. The think tank said continued Turkish operations could
further radicalize the PKK and open the door to Al Qaida-aligned elements.
"Even if it managed to flush them from the mountains, this might leave the door
open for radical Islamists to turn the region into their own Tora Bora-style
stronghold," the report said.
The report cast doubts on Ankara's claims that PKK fighters were moving from
Iraq to Turkey. Chatam said the Iraqi-Turkish border area was difficult to
traverse, and the PKK probably established a presence throughout southeastern
Turkey.
"It is not certain that the autumn attacks were carried out by Iraq-based PKK
units," the report said. "Movement across the mountainous border is difficult
and if the PKK claim of having more guerrillas based in Turkey than in Iraq is
true, it is likely that the Turkish state's problem is closer to home."
Chatam urged the international community to examine the prospect of offering
sovereignty to the Kurdish community. The report said this must include the
Kurds of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
"There is no imminent prospect of an independent Kurdish state but it is
possible that one may in time emerge as a late addition to the post-1918
political map of the Middle East," the report said. "These trends mean that the
Kurdish situation has to be reappraised and reconsidered with reference to new
political dynamics in Turkey, Syria, Iran, and of course Iraq, and more
importantly, the new political and economic outlook of the Kurds themselves."
