Iraqi Kurdish officials have reacted to the Turkish warnings and the massing of Turkish forces along the border with increasing alarm.
Iraq's Kurdish Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari issued a
statement on July 9 expressing his deep concern over intelligence estimates of
more than 140,000 Turkish troops currently stationed on the border. He urged
restraint and called for a diplomatic solution to the tensions.
The Pentagon disputed the numbers cited by Zebari, while Turkey had no
comment. Zebari may have exaggerated intentionally, to focus greater
international media attention on the Turkish threats in the hope of forcing
Turkey to back down. In any case, it shows that he takes the Turkish threats
seriously.
Setting Dangerous Precedent
The possibility of a Turkish military operation in northern Iraq has created
concerns among the Kurdish leadership that it may lead to clashes between
Turkish forces and the Kurdish peshmerga militia. This could then mushroom
into a wider regional conflict.
"An incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan will not be a picnic...if the incursion is
into areas inside Iraqi Kurdistan -- into the cities and towns -- then there
will definitely be clashes between the peshmerga forces and the Turkish Army,
and this is something we do not wish for at all," Iraqi President Jalal
Talabani told Al-Arabiyah satellite television on July 6.
Talabani's warning underscores the dilemma Turkey faces in a major
cross-border operation into northern Iraq. If Turkish forces do enter Iraq and
engage PKK fighters, it unclear how long they will remain, and it may take a
significant amount of time to drive the PKK forces out of their mountain
strongholds.
Consequently, the longer Turkish forces remain inside Iraq, the greater the
chances that they will clash with the peshmerga, who would see any incursion
as a violation of their territory. Indeed, after being oppressed for decades
under the former regime of Saddam Hussein, the Kurds do not take their
newfound semi-autonomy for granted. Fighting in Iraqi Kurdistan would also
open an additional military front that U.S. and Iraqi forces are ill-equipped
to deal with at this time.
In addition, a Turkish incursion based on the principle of fighting terrorism
sets a dangerous precedent for Iraq's neighbors. Iran, Syria, and Saudi
Arabia, who are widely believed to be involved in Iraq behind the scenes, may
be emboldened to follow suit. Once Turkey opens the proverbial Pandora's box
by conducting cross-border operations into Iraq, Iraq's other neighbors may
well argue that they are entitled to do the same in the name of national
security.
Drawn Deeper Into Iraq
Turkey could be drawn further into northern Iraq's
ethnic disputes (epa file photo)The opening of a new military front in
the north would undoubtedly destabilize a region that has been a zone of
relative peace in Iraq. Not only would Turkish forces face the danger of being
sucked into Iraq's numerous and violent conflicts, it would also provide Al-Qaeda
in Iraq with an opportunity to gain a stronger foothold in the region by
stoking the considerable ethnic and sectarian tensions between the Kurds,
Turkomans, and Arabs.
Further attacks by Al-Qaeda against the Iraqi Turkoman population, similar to
the July 7 bombing in the northern town of Tuz Khurmato, may draw Turkish
forces deeper into the conflict as they face pressure to protect their ethnic
brethren.
Armed confrontations may result between all the parties involved, with Al-Qaeda
carrying out attacks aimed at perpetuating a similar cycle of violence that
engulfed Baghdad and the surrounding areas for a year and a half. Turkey could
be drawn ever deeper into in Iraq's internal conflicts, and find it ever more
difficult to extricate itself.
While Turkey may believe that a military incursion into northern Iraq will
improve its national security, the resulting fallout may actually end up not
only making Turkey less secure, but destabilizing the entire region as well.