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Confederations Is The Solution For Conflict
In Iraq
By: Dr Nazhad Khasraw Hawramany
June 17, 2007
The vicious cycle of violence and
counter-violence doesn't seem to end in Iraq, whereby the different factions of
Iraqi community are trying in vain to reach a compromise acceptable to all
parts, hoping that it will lead to cessation of bloody Sunni insurgency and the
tit for tat revenge killings by Mehdi Army militiamen loyal to radical Shia
cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. The efforts unfortunately concentrate mainly towards
more re-centralization and concentration of power in Baghdad , reminiscent of
old times and trying to rob the provinces of any real regional authority and
control over their local resources, with every thing being planned, as during
Ba`ath reign, from Baghdad without real considerations for the needs, attitudes
and aspirations of different regions of Iraq, with their diverging ethnic and
religious preferences. The American administration is putting extreme pressure
mainly on Shia and Kurdish political leadership to give greater concessions
towards the Sunni community in Iraq. The reality, however, is that any more
centralization is a recipe for failure, because the Sunni insurgency is trying
through its indiscriminate and bloody insurgency to stop the wheel of progress
in Iraq and to undo all the important political and constitutional changes in
Iraqi power structure following the overthrow of Ba`ath regime on 9 April 2003.
There is no evidence at all that even if those changes are made, that the
insurgency will stop anyway, because their explicit and implicit aim is to grab
power again and regain their absolute monopoly on power in Iraq, which is almost
impossible to happen again, putting in consideration that the majority of Iraqi
population are made of Shia and Kurds, who would never tolerate such attempt and
certainly are able, considering the balance of power now, to crush such coup
attempt instantly. The Sunni community is unfortunately living in the past and
cannot come into accepting the radical changes which happened to the power
equation in Iraq. They cling to old Ba`athist accusations of separatism against
Kurds and oppose the normalisation of Kirkuk and implementation of article 140
and accuse the Shi`as of being Iranian stooges and playing into the hands of
Iranian influence in the region, forgetting that they are( i.e. The Sunnis), the
people who are being manipulated by neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia,
Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and non-neighbouring countries like Egypt, who cannot
imagine a democratically elected Iraqi administration dominated by Shi`as, with
the Kurds playing an important role in it( most of the countries mentioned are
themselves either authoritarian or chauvinistic and their hostilities are mainly
because of Shi`a dominated rule or prominent Kurdish role). Recently a meeting
was concluded in Egypt by some Sunni and Islamic factions, as well as Ayad
Allawi and some previous Ba`athists and Kurdish mercenaries, culminating in
establishment of a political front aimed at antagonizing the Kurdish-Shi`a
alliance in the Al-Maliki government, with very hostile agenda to issues like
Kirkuk, and federalism, the meeting was apparently organised and sponsored by
countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. The Kurdish leadership and Al-
Maliki accused those political forces of attempting a coup in Iraq.
The latest American insistence on the failed formula of centralisation is not
popular, the political stalemate and the unrelenting terrorist activities is
gradually dragging Iraq into catastrophe, the Baghdad surge is only partially
effective, with millions of Iraqis fleeing the unstable situation and lack of
services either to neighbouring countries like Syria and Jordan ( about 2
millions), as well as internally displaced people( 2-3 millions) who are victims
of sectarian cleansing perpetrated by both Arab Sunni and Arab Shi`a alike. The
Kurds are also falling as victims of ethnic cleansing by the Arab Sunni
insurgents in the provinces of Neineva ( Mosul), Diyala and Baghdad. The
American politics is in disarray and it reflects the Republican-Democratic feud
in the Congress and Senate and the increasingly embattled administration of
George Bush, amidst decreasing public support for the war in Iraq.
As it was said over and over again, there is almost no real prospect of the
differing Iraqi factions accommodated together ( at least for the time being!)
under a strongly centralised government, dominated by one faction or the other.
The Shi`a-Sunni conflict is almost 1400 years old and each faction accuses the
other one of being infidel. The recent spade of attacks on religious sites of
both sects are adding fuel to the fire. The Sunni insurgency will not accept a
democratic majority rule of Shi`a anyway and will not stop their bloody campaign
short of regaining their power in Iraq. The Sunni political factions actually
have no real influence over the Sunni insurgency and there is no guarantee that
the insurgency will stop even if the Kurds and Shi`a cave in to the unrealistic
demands of the Sunni politicians regarding amendments of constitution.
If the Sunni politicians really claim that they represent the Sunni insurgency,
let them broker a truce for say about one month, whereby the Sunni insurgents
stop all their violent actions against civilians, Iraqi police and army and
coalition forces. if that really happened then the chances of a successful
outcome for reconciliation and constitution amendments are real, otherwise this
is a futile process, which will cause only more pain and blood shedding ..
The solution otherwise might seem painful and resentful to some Iraqis to begin
with( although other Iraqis might be enthusiastic about it) , but it seems that
there is no other way, but to devolve the central power into a 3-confederation
systems in Iraq ( Kurdistan confederation in the north, central and western
Sunni confederation and Shia confederation in central and south Iraq), which
might entitle some population movements between those 3 entities to establish
population harmony, just as it happened in Yugoslavia, and certainly the United
Nations and international community could help in this matter, thereby creating
3 safe havens for the 3 different communities, and stopping the influx of Iraqi
refugees and internally displaced people. Baghdad itself should be divided into
two sections, the Rusaffa side for the Shi`as and the Karch side for the Sunnis,
probably with some UN peace keepers. National wealth should be divided through a
fair and just formula. These divisions should by no means be permanent, and if
those communities decided in the future to reconciliation and live together
again then that should be their choice. The coalition troops should have a
limited mandate to control the Iraqi frontiers against interference from
neighbouring countries, and once the situation is stabilized, a time schedule
should be contemplated for their withdrawal
