Turks Weighing Risk
Of Cross-Border Incursion Into Southern Kurdistan To U.S.-Turkey Relations
The Associated Press
October 10, 2007
SHIRNAKH, (Northern Kurdistan): Helicopters and jet fighters fly reconnaissance
missions over the conflict zone as the prospect that Turkey could stage a
military offensive into Iraq looms.
Local residents who saw Turkish troops pursue Kurdish rebels over the border in
the 1980s and 1990s, with inconclusive results, believe a new operation will be
no different.
This time, more is at stake. There is concern about hurting Turkey's
relationship with the United States, and fear in Iraq of instability in its
north, which has escaped the violence that plagues the rest of the country.
In addition, any economic fallout could destroy livelihoods in the poor region.
Turkey provides electricity and oil products to the Kurdish administration in
Southern Kurdistan, and the annual trade volume at Habur Gate, the main border
crossing, is more than $10 billion (euro7.4 billion).
"If this border gate is closed because of war, then everybody in this region
will suffer," said Mehmet Yavuz, a Turkish truck driver, hauling cement to the
Iraqi Kurdish city of Irbil. "This border gate is daily bread for us."
Still, Turkish leaders are gearing up for a possible cross-border operation
despite opposition from Washington and Iraqi Kurds, who say they are unable to
control Turkish Kurd rebels fighting for autonomy in southeast Turkey while
seeking refuge in remote mountains in Iraq.
For now, residents of the border towns of Cizre, Silopi and Sirnak are sipping
tea at outdoor cafes at night while shopping for candy dayside for the religious
holiday this week marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Kurdish
separatist rebels operate mostly in rural, sparsely populated areas, but concern
in the towns and cities is growing.
The mostly Kurdish residents on the Turkish side of the border fear that despite
increased attacks by the Kurdish rebels who killed around 30 people in less than
two weeks, a cross-border offensive against the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party,
or PKK, is unlikely to bring peace after more than two decades of fighting.
But Turkish military leaders have described an incursion as a necessary tactic
to push back the rebels and disrupt their safe havens and supply lines. The
government is also deeply frustrated at its inability to curb attacks by
concentrating on operations within its own borders, and under pressure to show
resolve to an outraged public.
On both sides of the border, local Kurds say Turkey should consider economic
development and other nonmilitary means as ways to end the rebellion.
"Blood has been shed for more than 20 years now, and it helps no one," said
truck driver Abdurrahman Iscan.
The Iraqi Kurdish regional government's spokesman, Jamal Abdullah, said an
incursion could undermine Iraq and the region.
"We do believe that the solution of this problem is not in the military
operation but a political and interior one," he said. "Military operations will
not solve this problem as they have been launched since 1984 and the problem
still exists."
"The government was forced to take such a decision in the face of growing public
anger. Otherwise it is not wise to take such a step that could hamper ties with
the United States and Iraqi Kurds," said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a terrorism expert.
"However, it is not clear whether the government is really ready to order such
an offensive."
Much of the mountainous border area is off-limits to journalists. Some troop
activity and transfer of tanks by trucks could be seen in the area as warplanes
and helicopters flew over the rugged terrain.
Adding to the tense ties with the United States, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
wrote to U.S. President George W. Bush Tuesday, warning that passage of a U.S.
congressional bill recognizing the mass killings of Armenians by Turks around
the time of World War I as genocide would harm ties.
"If the Armenian genocide resolution passes, then I think that the possibility
of a cross-border operation is very high," said Ihsan Dagi of the Department of
International Relations of Middle East Technical University in Ankara.
Military experts who know the rough terrain say the army is unlikely to finish
off the battle-hardened guerrillas, who would quickly move into caves or head
deeper into Iraqi Kurdistan to main bases on the Qandil Mountain, 180 kilometers
(110 miles) away from the Turkish border.
Turkey has previously staged incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan, but never went as
far as Qandil, which sits on the Iranian-Iraqi border.
There, the guerrilla group trains and indoctrinates fighters at a huge tent and
cave city, complete with ovens, classrooms, gardens and generators, according to
reporters who have visited the main camp.
The Turkish military, which last carried out a major incursion into Iraq a
decade ago with some 50,000 troops, estimates 3,800 guerrillas operate from Iraq
and 2,300 are inside Turkey.
In the past, Turkish soldiers freely crossed the border under a deal with Saddam
Hussein's government to carry out offensives against Kurdish rebels. Saddam is
dead and that deal is no longer valid. The United States fears that any major
Turkish operation could lead to serious tensions with Iraqi Kurds, a key ally in
U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq.
"It could be a major blow to the (PKK) and it would allow Turkey to show its
determination," Ret. Gen. Edip Baser told private NTV television. "But it will
never mean the end of terrorism. This is what our experiences have shown us."
Terrorism expert Ozcan warned the PKK could possibly benefit from a Turkish
incursion into Southern Kurdistan.
"It could help the PKK to increase its popularity, it will start organizing news
conferences and issue statements about its cause and have its voice heard around
the world," Ozcan said.
