Usually in counter-insurgency warfare conventional armies make the mistake of
underestimating their enemy. The British did not take the arise of extremists in
the South American colonies serious during the American war of Independence and
thought their insurrection could be easily dealt with. The Americans flawed in
their Iraq policies in that they too soon claimed victory in 2003 whilst the war
of freeing Iraq was just starting. In both cases it led the British of the
eighteenth century and the Americans in Iraq to not having a strategy to defeat
the extremists and allowed them to develop and grow even stronger and bigger.
Where Turkey claims it is in their interests to invade Southern Kurdistan to
step up against PKK guerrilla camps it however overestimates the issue. When
(western) reporters have publicly paid visits to these PKK camps in the remote
mountains of Kandil they were driven there on not even roads but rather mountain
pathways far away from human settlements. Where Taliban fighters in
Afghanistan frequently step down the mountains to Afghan villages and where
Afghan tribe heads are often aware of any presence or even the exact location of
Taliban fighters, when local Kurdish villagers close to the Turkish-Iraqi
international border were asked for any presence or clues on the appearance of
PKK fighters in the area they claimed none.
Turkey claims it is part of their self-defence rights to cross an
internationally recognized border line to fight guerrillas of the PKK on foreign
soil. However, in case of such a move it neglects the official authority
authorised in the area by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the rights
of the Kurdish citizens of Iraq, who have every right to oppose a foreign power
invading their home. As a matter of fact, the Turks have been inside Southern
Kurdistan since 1997. In total, there are six Turkish bases and more than one
thousand Turkish soldiers currently stationed on Iraqi Kurdish territory,
including tanks and armoured personnel carriers. One of these bases is even
situated 12 miles deep (20 kilometres) across the border into KRG territory.
What comes on top of that is that the Iraqi Kurds, who Turkey
claims do not act against the PKK on their soil, have in fact had many
unsuccessful confrontations with PKK fighters in the past, where current Kurdish
Peshmerga generals talk about their difficult experiences in counteracting PKK
moves. It shows how determined the PKK is to maintain its safe haven up there
and how favourable their struggle is in the remote mountains of Kandil.
Quite expected from the Kurdish side which mainly views Turkish actions as
anti-Kurdish and not anti-PKK, Mr Bahceli, leader of the Turkish
extreme-nationalist movement MHP suggested Turkish forces to also ‘attack
Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani along with
the planned incursion’. How can the Kurdish citizens of Iraq not believe a
Turkish incursion would be targeted against them to redeem their call for an
independent Kurdish state instead of to a step up against the PKK?
When the British in 1775 made the mistake of not
distinguishing between the extremists and the more moderate Americans, this led
the moderate ones to join the extremist’s side in the struggle to thwart British
rule. The same will happen in the case of an incursion from the Turks into
Southern Kurdistan. Already, over fifteen thousand Kurdish protestors have
marched on the streets of several Kurdish cities like Duhok, Kirkuk and Arbil to
show opposition to a possible Turkish incursion. Kurdish authorities have made
clear many times they do not accept any foreign power carrying out operations on
their soil, which they will fiercely oppose if necessary. No country so far has
shown support to a Turkish incursion into Southern Kurdistan, and in fact, the
US, EU and NATO which Turkey itself is part of, have all put down such actions
as this would bring instability to the only area in Iraq which has been safe and
free from terrorist attacks and where the reconstruction program set up since
2003 is fiercely booming.
