KurdistanObserver.com

We have civil war, says ex-PM
By Toby Harnden
Oct 16, 2005  Telegraph

Iraq has been plunged into the early stages of civil war by its government's policy of allowing armed Shia militias to infiltrate security forces, accentuating a spate of sectarian killings, according to a former prime minister.

Iyad Allawi, who spent six months as caretaker prime minister until national elections were held in January, gave a bleak assessment of a worsening situation that could lead to a "catastrophe".

He accused neighbouring Iran and Syria of interfering in Iraq's affairs and assisting an insurgency that was "getting more sophisticated". The policies of his successor, the Shia leader Ibrahim al-Ja'afari, he said, could cause the break-up of Iraq into a Shia south, Kurdish north and Sunni central region.

Closely allied to the United States and British governments, Mr Allawi, 60, is the most senior Iraqi politician to have said that civil war has become a reality.

His comments, in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, will cause deep concern in Washington and London. "This is one of the stages of civil war we are right in now," he said. "What you have is killings, assassinations, militias, a stagnant economy, no services. With the help of the world, we must try to avoid moving further and deeper into these stages."

He said that while suicide bombs grabbed the headlines, the murder of Sunnis by Shia groups and vice versa was more significant and ominous. "On a daily basis there are assassinations and liquidations. In Jordan, I was told that the official figures of Iraqi students trying to move to Jordanian universities is 14,000. We have an exodus of doctors from Iraq. These are all the ingredients of much wider problems."

US State Department officers and British Foreign Office mandarins have avoided even hinting that civil war - referred to by some officials as "the c-word" - is possible. But diplomats privately concede that a violent fragmentation could take place. "I don't think it's inevitable or even likely that we're seeing a descent into civil war or chaos of the type seen in Somalia or Lebanon," said a Western diplomat. "But you'd be a fool to rule it out."

Mr Allawi, a former Ba'athist who fled Saddam Hussein's regime and spent years in exile in London, earned the respect of Sunnis and Shias during his period as the first post-Saddam leader. Shia by religion but secular in outlook, he is tipped by some to return as prime minister in January. "He's probably the only credible candidate with national standing who could front a nationalist, centrist coalition," the diplomat said.

Mr Allawi backed a Yes vote in yesterday's referendum on the new constitution, although he has reservations about some of its passages, which many believe could give too much power to Shia and Kurdish blocs. He believes that the constitution's drafting and the December elections mean Iraq could be "moving in the right direction at last".

However, the situation was very dangerous because Mr Ja'afari's government, widely perceived to have close links with Iran, had allowed members of Shia militia groups to join the security forces without setting aside their sectarian loyalties.

"There are a lot of groups that have been integrated into the security forces," said Mr Allawi. "Sectarianism has increased. The role of militias has increased."

Bayan Jabr, the interior minister, also an exile during the Saddam era, is believed by many Sunnis to be in the pocket of Teheran and to have allowed Shia murder gangs to join the police.

"Insurgency feeds on an unhealthy political environment," Mr Allawi said. "The worse the unemployment and health services and water supply, the more their evil ambitions grow."