KurdistanObserver.com
Ambitions of Kurds In Southern Kurdistan
Worry Turkey
By ROBERT H. REID
Associated Press Writer April 17, 2007
Recent political gains by Iraqi Kurds are raising alarms in neighboring Turkey
and increasing the risk of greater instability in Iraq's oil-rich north.
The moves — among the most significant involving Kurds since the 2003 invasion
of Iraq — have been largely overshadowed by the struggle to curb violence around
Baghdad, but they could have a strong impact on Iraq's future, including whether
it remains a united country.
Kurdish boldness also comes at a critical time for Turkey, which is facing a
growing threat in its own Kurdish region from separatist guerrillas raiding out
of northern Iraq and has a presidential election coming up that could aggravate
tensions between Islamist and secular Turks.
The fallout already has shaken relations between the United States and Turkey, a
longtime ally increasingly frustrated that the overstretched American military
in Iraq cannot crack down on Kurdish guerrillas.
That has the United States in a bind — "unwilling to open a new front in
northern Iraq. Nor can it afford to lose its support from Iraq's Kurdish
population," said Dr. Andrew McGregor, a security analyst and Kurdish expert in
Canada, writing on the Web site of the Jamestown Foundation, a conservative
think tank.
At the center of the fight are Kurdish aspirations for the ancient city of
Kirkuk, the center of Iraq's northern oilfields.
The Kurds want to incorporate Kirkuk into their self-governing region in
northern Iraq. They won a major concession in March when they pressured the
government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki into approving plans to move
thousands of Arabs out of Kirkuk and resettle them elsewhere.
The program targets Arabs who moved to Kirkuk after July 14, 1968, when Saddam
Hussein's party took power. Saddam sent thousands of Arabs, many of them
impoverished Shiite Muslims from the south, into Kirkuk to dilute the Kurdish
presence there.
The Kurds' aim is to reduce the Arab population of the city before Kirkuk
residents vote later this year whether to join the Kurdish self-governing
region.
Opponents hope to delay the referendum or cancel it altogether. They fear that
gaining control of Kirkuk would lead the Kurds, who make up 15 percent to 20
percent of Iraq's population, to set up an independent country entirely.
Nevertheless, the opponents within al-Maliki's administration caved in after the
Kurds threatened to resign from the Cabinet — a move that would have spelled the
end of the fragile, U.S.-backed governing coalition.
"For the Kurds, Kirkuk is nonnegotiable," said Dr. Soner Cagaptay of the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Violence will only continue and
spike toward the referendum."
The Kurds used similar hardball tactics in February to win concessions granting
them a major say in what companies are granted rights to exploit Iraqi oilfields
in Kurdish-controlled areas.
But the March decision on relocation was even bigger, sending shock waves into
neighboring Turkey, which has long feared the rising stature of Iraqi Kurds will
further embolden Kurdish guerrillas fighting for self-rule in southeastern
Turkey.
The insurgent Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, use bases in northern Iraq to
launch attacks into southern Turkey, and Turkey is growing angry over the
failure of U.S. and Iraqi forces to curb the attacks.
After the Iraqi Cabinet's decision to relocate Arabs from Kirkuk, Turkey warned
publicly that its interests in the region cannot be ignored.
The hardline head of Turkey's military, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, went further,
requesting permission last week to attack Kurdish guerrillas inside Iraq.
Turkey's government isn't likely to approve, but the request alone has strained
relations between Ankara and Washington.
The president of Iraq's Kurdish self-governing region, Massoud Barzani, further
angered Turkish leaders by warning that Kurds "will not let the Turks intervene
in Kirkuk."
Some analysts believe Barzani pushed for the Arab relocation plan because he
fears the U.S. might block the referendum on Kirkuk's status, both to ease
ethnic tensions and placate Turkey.
"He's trying to create a sense of inevitability that would make it impossible
for the (U.S.) administration" to stand in the Kurds' way on Kirkuk, said Mark
Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey.
Barzani also may have timed his move to exploit political uncertainty in Turkey,
as the Islamic-leaning prime minister seeks to be president, raising fears of
serious friction with the secular-minded Turkish military.
Barzani also may be using the PKK guerrillas as leverage in exchange for
Turkey's acceptance of a Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk.
"The one card (Barzani) has to deal with the Turks is the PKK," Parris said. "He
could tell them, 'Don't forget, I'm the only guy who can solve your PKK
problem.'"
