The other Jerusalem
Apr 4th 2007 | KIRKUK AND BAGHDAD
From The Economist print edition
Will the Kurds get their way?
AS YOU drive through the city of Kirkuk, with its drab buildings, dusty and
rubbish-strewn streets and general decrepitude, you wonder why it stirs such
anguish at the heart of Iraq's national-unity government in Baghdad. One big
answer is the huge, sprawling oilfields on the city's western fringe.
But for Kirkuk's Kurds and their brethren in the autonomous Kurdish region to
the north, it is about far more than just oil. Kirkuk is a symbol, they say, of
everything Kurdish: their people, their land, their history. They say they can
be reconciled with their Arab compatriots, both Sunni and Shia, only if Saddam
Hussein's “Arabisation” campaign—the settlement of tens of thousands of Arabs in
Kirkuk during his three decades in power—is reversed.
Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd from Kirkuk, called the city “our
Jerusalem”. But while the status of the real Jerusalem looks set to remain
disputed for many years, most Kurds now think that Kirkuk's fate will be
satisfactorily sealed this year. Most Arabs still disagree. But the tide may be
flowing the Kurds' way.
Last week, Kurdish leaders threatened to quit the government in Baghdad,
where they are allied to the main Shia block, unless the cabinet of Nuri al-Maliki
stopped dragging its feet over Kirkuk. A deal was then struck: thousands of
Arabs who had settled in Kirkuk would be compensated with land and money if they
went back to their original homes, mainly in the south.
The justice minister, Hashem al-Shibli, said that those who left would be
paid about $15,000 and given land in their former home towns. Mr Shibli, who has
been chairing a committee looking into the issue, said that Kirkuk's authorities
would soon begin giving out forms to Arab families to assess who was eligible
for resettlement, which would be voluntary.
The minister then surprised everyone by resigning, citing differences with
the government and his own political block, led by a former prime minister, Iyad
Allawi, partly over Kirkuk. The controversial Article 140 of Iraq's new
constitution provides for several things: the return of Arab “settlers” and a
redrawing of the boundaries of Kirkuk province, surrounding the city; a census;
and then, by November 15th this year, a referendum on whether Kirkuk should join
the present Kurdistan federal region. Kurds calculate that, once enough Arabs
have left, the vote will go their way. One Arab member of parliament says that
12,600 families, which means around 90,000 people, have already agreed to go.
The referendum's exact terms have yet to be drafted. Among other things, the
Kurds want to adjust the borders of Kirkuk province to bring back four
Kurdish-populated towns (Chamchamal, Kalar, Tuz Kermatu and Kifri) which Saddam
had put into other provinces to shift Kirkuk's demographic balance against the
Kurds. They also want the Kurdish region to include a string of mostly Kurdish
towns, in a loop running from Sinjar, west of (mainly Arab) Mosul, through
Makhmur, south-west of Arbil, to Mandali in the south-east near the Iranian
border. The Kurds' geographic borders, they say, should roughly follow the line
of the Hamrin mountains.
Many of Kirkuk's Arabs and Turkomen fiercely object to all such ideas. The
Turkomen say they are Kirkuk's original rulers, while most Arabs say Kirkuk is
Iraqi and should stay so. Sunni Arab nationalists elsewhere in Iraq, plus
followers of the populist Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, have denounced the plan
to push Kirkuk's Arab families to move south. Few Arabs or Turkomen trust the
city's Kurdish-dominated authorities to treat them fairly. Turkey's government,
facing elections this year, rejects the Kurds' claims to Kirkuk and says it may
have to intervene militarily if the city's Turkomen are threatened. The
Americans say Kirkuk is an internal Iraqi issue and are urging the Turks to stay
out.
So there are fears that tensions may yet boil over in a city where Kurds,
Arabs, Turkomen and Christians edgily co-exist. This week a massive bomb hit a
police station in a mainly Kurdish district, killing 15 people, including
children at a nearby school. Such attacks, presumably by Sunni insurgents, may
increase, in the hope that the Kurds delay the referendum. But as things stand,
they are determined to hold it.
