KurdistanObserver.com

Kurdish Autonomy Ambitions Spurred By Poll Gains
By Gareth Smyth in Arbil
February 13 2005
Financial Times

Kurdish aspirations for a semi-autonomous Kurdistan within Iraq were given a strong fillip by Sunday's official election results, which gave the main Kurdish parties more than a quarter of the overall vote.

The results will harden Kurdish resolve to press for autonomy in drawing up Iraq's permanent constitution, and consolidate their sense of empowerment after decades of suppression by the former Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein.

The official tally gave the Iraq Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Islamic Union of Kurdistan (IUK) together a total of 2.17m from 8.55m votes cast.

Kurdish reaction to the announcement of the results was nevertheless low-key, as cold, damp weather kept people indoors and bazaars closed early. Another factor in muted reaction was that the results were as forecast.

Aside from national election results, the electoral commission also announced that the main Kurdish parties' list won more than 1.5m of 1.75m votes cast for the Kurds' own regional assembly.

In provincial election results for Kirkuk, a mixed province where Saddam Hussein's regime carried out extensive Arabisation, the Kurdish list won a clear majority, with 237,303 of 400,392 votes cast, far ahead of the 73,191 won by the Turkoman Front, a coalition of Turkoman parties allied to Turkey.

Kirkuk's elections reanimated concern about the sectarian balance in the province, where the Iraqi electoral commission enfranchised about 100,000 displaced Kurds who had returned to the province since the fall of Mr Hussein.

Turkey and some Iraqi Arab groups had opposed this decision, and expressed disquiet at growing Kurdish influence in the province, which contains 8.7bn barrels of oil, Iraq's second-largest oilfield.

Kurds now have two expectations of their leaders: that they should unify the two distinct administrations run by the KDP and the PUK; and that they should secure an autonomous Kurdish region in the Iraqi constitution to be agreed by the end of the year.

The KDP and PUK leaders, Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, announced last week a common post-election strategy and will support Mr Talabani as either president or prime minister of Iraq, while Mr Barzani becomes president of the Kurdish region.

The Kurds have a long-standing alliance with the Shia parties with whom they generally agree on the importance of "de-Baathification".

But they are also sceptical of proposals, made by some Shia, to enshrine Islam within the new constitution. The weekend visit of Iyad Allawi to Kurdistan suggests the Kurds will play Mr Allawi's bloc off against the Shia United Iraq Alliance, which is expected to have secured about 132 of 275 seats in the assembly.

There is also a popular fear of Kurdish energies being squandered in Baghdad.

"I don't think it's a good idea for Jalal Talabani to be president," said a woman in Suleimania. "He should be working for the people in Kurdistan, not to keep Iraq together."

Events will also be watched closely by the millions of Kurds in the neighbouring countries of Turkey, Iran and Syria.

"This election can be a step towards achieving constitutional recognition of Kurdish autonomy; the first time this would be achieved in any country," said an Iranian Kurd living in Arbil.