KurdistanObserver.com

Shiites’ Pick For Premier Could spark Bitter Battle

By John F. Burns and Dexter Filkins

New York Times 02/23/2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite doctor with an Islamist bent, was chosen Tuesday by the victorious Shiite alliance as its candidate for Iraq's new prime minister.

The decision may well open a period of protracted and rancorous negotiations with a coalition of secular leaders intent on sharply curtailing al-Jaafari's powers or blocking him and his clerical-backed coalition.

Ayad Allawi, the current prime minister, and Barham Salih, a Kurdish politician and deputy prime minister, said in separate interviews Tuesday that without guarantees renouncing sectarianism and embracing Western democratic ideals, they were poised to block al-Jaafari's nomination and possibly peel off enough members from the Shiites' United Iraqi Alliance to form a government of their own.

Iraq's interim constitution effectively requires a two-thirds majority in the new assembly to name a prime minister and government. The Shiite alliance, led by two religious parties with close ties to Iran, won the most National Assembly seats in the Jan. 30 elections.

Indeed, initial indications were that a potentially polarizing battle was in prospect, one that could expose the deep fissures in Iraqi society that have been held in check since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Those fissures not only cut across sectarian and ethnic lines but also track a wide disagreement about the nature of the Iraqi state - whether it should be religious or secular, centrally led or governed by a federal system, allied to Iran or anchored in ties to the West.

Al-Jaafari, 58, won the nomination when his final challenger, Ahmad Chalabi, agreed to withdraw. Chalabi, a secular American-educated exile and a former favorite of the Bush administration, had been pushing for a secret ballot within the Shiite alliance to determine a candidate for prime minister.

Chalabi agreed to drop out of the race after intense pressure from the leaders of the Shiite alliance's two main wings: al-Jaafari's Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Chalabi promised to support al-Jaafari.

If al-Jaafari secures the approval of the newly elected National Assembly, he will play a central role in the drafting of the country's permanent constitution, which is scheduled to be put before voters this year. That process is likely to be one of the most contentious political battles in the coming months, with arguments over such questions as the role of Islam in government and the degree of autonomy afforded to minorities such as the Kurds.

Despite the appearance of inevitability, al-Jaafari faces a difficult task in persuading a large bloc of mostly secular parties to support him.

If the Kurds and Allawi do not scuttle al-Jaafari's candidacy, they are likely to set a number of stiff conditions for their support, not only regarding the shape of the government but also of the permanent constitution to be drafted this year.

Both the Kurds and Allawi's group, known as the Iraqi List, are skeptical of the Shiite alliance's pledge that it will not build an Islamic state. Allawi and senior Kurdish leaders have said they are troubled by what they regard as the undue influence wielded among the Shiite alliance by the government of Iran, which provided sanctuary to the leadership of both the Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq during Saddam's rule.

Allawi, in the interview Tuesday, said he intended to press his own candidacy for prime minister and to explore the possibilities of forming a secular bloc within the assembly that could muster more seats than the alliance.

Allawi predicted that settling the issue of who would lead the new government could take weeks and hinted that the battle could be bitter. He said he had heard rumors that the alliance leaders had consulted with Iran's ruling ayatollahs, and had been told that Allawi, a secular Shiite with close ties to the United States that go back at least 15 years, would not be acceptable to Iran as prime minister in the new transitional government.

Any suggestion that Iran has played a role in the alliance's choice of prime minister would be politically explosive in Iraq, particularly among the Sunni minority population. That, in turn, could re-energize the Sunni-led insurgency that has paralyzed much of the country in the 23 months since the U.S.-led invasion, blighting hopes that key Sunni groups with links to the insurgents might agree to help curb the insurgency and join the political process.