KurdistanObserver.com

A New Alliance Forms
February 10, 2006

Stratfor

Summary

Iraq's election commission Feb. 10 certified the results of the country's Dec. 15 elections, confirming the preliminary results that gave the ruling Shiite alliance first place, followed by the Sunnis and Kurds in second and third place respectively. A new nationalist alliance between Iraq's two major Sunni groups and former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's secular list will be an obstacle to the Kurdish goal for an autonomous region in Northern Kurdistan and Iran's plans to establish a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad through its Iraqi Shiite allies.

Analysis

The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq on Feb. 10 certified the results of the Dec. 15 elections. The results confirm that the ruling Islamist Shiite United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) won 128 of 275 parliamentary seats, followed by two Arab Sunni groups that secured 55 seats between them and the Kurdish coalition, which won 53 seats.

More important is the decision of the two Sunni parties -- the Iraqi Accord Front and the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue -- to join forces with the secular Iraqi National List to form the Joint Council for National Action (JCNA). The Iraqi National List, which won 25 seats, is led by former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. This new Iraqi nationalist alliance controls some 80 seats in the new legislature, making it the second-largest parliamentary bloc. Essentially the JCNA is an anti-establishment political force seeking to reverse the hold of the Shiite-Kurdish alliance over Baghdad, which has dominated the interim governments since the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council took office in the summer of 2003, following the ouster of the Hussein regime.

The core idea around which the three groups formed the JCNA is that of Iraqi nationalism, which will clash with the Kurdish bid for increasing regional autonomy for the northern Kurdistan enclave. Furthermore, the component groups in the JCNA are trying to counter the Shiite domination of Baghdad and the resulting alignment with Tehran.

The JCNA will drive a hard bargain for membership in the Cabinet, which will emerge out of a coalition government whose exact composition has yet to be decided; the UIA's component parties are having a hard time agreeing on a Shiite candidate for prime minister.

Tensions are bound to rise in the ongoing negotiations over the formation of the Iraqi government since the Sunni bloc has become more vocal. Sunnis, who form the backbone of the JCNA, in recent weeks have publicly expressed their displeasure over the Shiite-dominated Interior Ministry forces' attacks against the Sunni community. Sunni tribesmen in Iraq's restive Anbar province have agreed to take over combating foreign fighters there and securing the borders, officials said Feb. 10. The agreement was reached earlier this week in a meeting with U.S. and Iraqi officials, including U.S. commander Gen. George Casey Jr. and Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and National Security Adviser Mowaffak Rubaie. This will factor into the political scene as well, giving Sunni factions with ties to successful insurgent groups increased leverage and importance. Another factor in tensions is Allawi's recent accusation that the UIA had a hand in a murder plot against him.

In terms of the U.S.-Iranian back-channel discussions, the formation of the JCNA will anger the Iranians and likely result in additional posturing on the nuclear front.