Feb 22, 2003

The war is looming in the region and the Kurds have the biggest organized opposition military force inside Iraq. What should be their war strategy and what is
their united war plans?


THE WAR STRATEGY HEADQUARTERS

It is reported that the Kurdish  military genius Saladin used a hill a distance far a way in the middle between his army  right flank and left flank to observe the battle.  This was in contrast to the commander of the rival army, Richard, the lion Heart (the king of England)  who was directly involved in the  battlefield.

The advance in high technology and communication has removed the need for the commander of forces to be present in the front line and most of war planning and strategy of war is directed from a far distance. Churchill had his bunkers in London to direct the war and only  a number of times he went to  observe the war in Allies' trenches.

With the risk of Turkish unilateral invasion of Kurdistan increasing, it is of high importance for the Kurdish leaders to shift the headquarters away from Turkish reach as soon as possible. No one wants to see the arrest of the Kurdish leaders in the
middle of war or their  disappearance.

The Headquarters should be as far as possible from the border with Turkey and towards the southern part of Kurdish region to be close to the Kirkuk and Baghdad. The Shahu mountain range is one of the closest places to Iran-Iraq border and near the road
to Baghdad.

KURDISH WAR PLANS

After the Iranian revolution, the Kurds in Iran captured the garrisons and waited in Kurdistan for the Iranians to solidify they grip in the capital. Later the Kurdish movement was crushed in Iran by the military armor. The Kurds in Iraq might be tempted to do the same and liberate the Kirkuk and Mosul and wait for the Iraqi future central power come and crush them. The fact is that Turkish forces will be there before and Kurdish forces with no armor will have less chance especially if they try to do this in the middle of US war.

The issue whether the Turkish occupation of Kurdistan in Iraq is a disaster or not is not the topic of this article, but "Politics is like judo" as George Bush once said. If the Turkish war plan is to surrender and occupy the Kurdish regions, then the main bulk
of Kurdish forces must fall back to a position which is safe and outside the surrendering area of the Turks, and where its rear flank is safe. The Turkish army can be defeated when  it is over stretched and its line of communication and supply is inside Kurdish
territories. Once over-stretched, it can be attacked inside the non-Kurdish region deep inside Turkey too.

The Kurdish forces need to pull themselves together and prepare themselves for all eventualities. The force that manages to reach Baghdad and survive the civil unrest will be the king maker in Baghdad and will have access to the military armor that Kurds need to fight the Turks. Without military armor, Kurds can achieve a limited urban war and guerilla war against Turkey in the mountains.

Among the measures Kurds can prepare for are:

- War headquarter away from Turkish reach.
- Gathering of Intelligence about the Baghdad garrisons, airports and places such as Water and Electricity units, Radio and TV Broadcasting.
- Preparations for the transfer of  pishmarga forces away from Turkish reach.
- Logistics and safe houses of ammunition and supply
for transfer of  forces to Khaneqin and Baghdad.
- Predicting the date and battle formations of the Allies in Baghdad.
- Creation of a coordinated front with Kurds in neighboring countries.
- The creation of battle units and reserve units with a united line of command.
- Distributions of maps of Iraq and communication units to army units.

For this, Kurds  need to think big and prepare grand designs by changing their perspective from Kurdish territory  to the whole Iraqi territory. Moving the battle from Kurdish territory to outside it and preventing enourmous damage to the infrastructure of Kurdistan.

Kurds: THE KING MAKERS

If Kurds warn Turks of a bloody  war and they are serious about it, then they need to prepare for it instead of wasting their time in paper work and gatherings while the Shiite and rival forces in Iraq are preparing themselves for the capture of the capital. Kurds didn't need fax machines during Clinton time, they don't need photocopy machines now either.

The reality is that in the chess-board of the battle, the Baghdad  front is where you change your pawn into a powerful Vazir (i.e queen). Whether the next Iraqi grand vazir is a Kurd or non-Kurd has far reaching consequences in the region than other smaller targets like Kirkuk. The Shiites are becoming ready for this, why the Kurds are waiting?

A Kurdish grand-vazir ruling in Iraq is in a much better position to expel Turks from Kurdistan, and in a much better position to draw the borders of Kurdistan and give pieces of Iraqi land to its neighbors in exchange for friendship, alliance  or access to international waters.  In World War I for example, the Italians  joined the alliance when they were promised the west region of  Turkey. Kurds can also make promises.

A Kurdish grand-vazir can later also move the capital to Kirkuk, especially if Baghdad is bombed beyond reconstruction, and the Iraqi seat in UN can be renamed as Kurdistan seat when the border arrangments are made by the neigbours. What the Kurds want  to  do is to bring down a much stronger force by the  weight of its force and its move. As Bush reminds  Kurds: "Politics is like Judo, and I intend to use my opponent's punch to my advantage".  In Judo, they call such a move "Tomoe Nage" and the Kurds need to master it more than Bush to fight back the Turks.