Kurdistan: The before and after elections

By: Ahmed Karadaghi

Jan 23, 2004

Again we come to another crossroads in the realm that we call Iraq, which is the reason behind this simple analysis of the before and after for the so called upcoming Iraqi elections. And again it looks quite gloomy for the victims of Arab nationalism in the region, the Kurds. Sadly we now have a melting pot of Iranian influence, Arab nationalism and Turkish ignorance in dealing with the Kurds, their future or their basic human rights.

All these powers are working with the hope of gaining a reigning influence in a new government blessed by a last minute United Nations charter, which judging from past experience in Iraq has led to one thing, the massacre of the Kurds all over again.

Now don’t assume that I am against the Kurds participating in these forthcoming elections, I am a firm believer that for history’s sake all Kurds should vote. Looking at the current situation in Iraq, I believe that the Kurdish turnout could well actually be even more than the estimated 15%, that as per quota has been allocated for the Kurdish population in this new government of the make believe country of Iraq.

I am a firm believer that the Kurds should show the world that they support the Kurdish government that has given them, although a bumpy ride at times, a continuous 14 years of self rule with major achievements made in all aspects of society. Against the believe of some negative articles I read about the Kurdish leaders, they have given the opportunity to a new generation of Kurdish youth to live for once, without fear of reprisals or executions or torture by our former Arab governments. I think for that alone, for the lone reason that the Kurdish children for once had a semi normal childhood; the Kurds should show a vote of confidence toward the Kurdish leadership.

The Kurds should show their so called western allies that they are a civilized nation and deserve the right of self determination. I am for voting in the upcoming elections, I will for sure, and I believe most of the Kurdish population will do the same. Now another question is do I believe that it will do the Kurds any good? Here is the pessimist in me again and I would say no.

Just being a pessimist or merely offering a realistic analysis, I believe that the outcome is bleak again for the Kurds.

You may ask why vote? Why bother? The Kurds vote because they are a nation that has always believed in the strength of democracy, because they believe in dialogue first, because they urge to be a beacon for human rights in the Middle East, because they still trust the allies that have betrayed, and used them over and over again. They will vote to give historians and academics another reason to sit back and ponder why, a nation that is the only entity in the Middle East that could be anything similar to a democratic nation, is so ignored and betrayed so systematically.

Seeing the current levels of violence in both the Sunni triangle, the increase in threats and assassinations of election officials in all parts Iraq, excluding again the Kurdish administered region of Kurdistan, the American anticipation and estimates of Iraqi voter turnouts are highly exaggerated.

In percentage terms it seems that the Kurdish population will have one of the largest turnouts in these upcoming elections, but whatever the turnout all political analysts agree that the Kurdish percentage in the next government has already been established and will be less than the 25% that they represent of the Iraqi population. On the majority side we have the Shiia’s that will by all statistics win the elections and get the upper hand in this new government, we will then have the process of who will form the core of this government, their beliefs, ideology’s and what would concerns the Kurds more, their plans for the future of Iraq.

To start, anyone that even has a close chance of winning the majority of votes is either an Iranian clergy clone or an Arab nationalist clergy, which in our terms means, we have trouble ahead whoever wins. The Kurds will be asking for one of the main positions, Prime minister or President, as the saying goes, it doesn’t hurt to ask, and the Kurds seem to be doing that a lot lately, and that’s all they do, ask over and over again, since they never demand, issue fatwas or use force they never seem to get what they ask for. We want 25% of Iraq’s budget allocated to Kurdistan. Well you can get %10, okay? Okay. We want the prime minister or president’s job? Well you can have the deputy prime minister and vice president positions, Okay? Okay. We want the displaced people of Kirkuk to move back to their original homes. We can’t do that but they can live in tents on the outskirts in the scorching sun, Okay? Okay. Yes and when they do demand something, actually put their foot down, the neo-conservatives in Washington send their wizards and by wizards I mean wolfowitz and Armitage to Kurdistan to gently convince us to back down as a sign of goodwill by the Kurdish nation. The Kurds seem to have a lot of goodwill, the only problem, there seems to be no goodwill towards the Kurds anywhere.

Anyways sorry for drifting of the subject at hand, the aftermath of these elections is what we are coming too. A new government is elected, recognized and given a green light to launch. The shaping and direction of this new administration is most likely to be radical Islamic with a touch of “we don’t hate the west but just want to suppress the basic human rights of our own people” and let us not forget they would actually get away with it. Most of the Gulf States get away with using that plain but very effective ideology. Again where do the Kurds fit in here? 

Well that’s just it, they don’t. They believe in secular Islam, they are not Arabs, Turks or Iranians which is the latest demographic fashion currently in Iraq, they just don’t fit in.

So the new government will get around to issuing decrees or fatwas or whatever they decide to call them, since these will all become internal affairs after January 30^th and nobody can interfere. The first step of any newly born oppressive regime will be to start building its army, upgrading their cooperation with corrupt military and intelligence elements in the region, in an effort to uproot and eliminate any one they see as a threat to their total supremacy in the region, in this case the Kurds. I think the Kurds should be the smart ones for a change and stop trusting regimes and nations that have one main purpose, the total annihilation of the Kurds or achieving the Kurds total submission into being slaves for ignorant fascist governments. As a nation the Kurds have never taken to that lightly and have spend decades fighting for what they currently have in Kurdistan, a new, not so perfect, in the primary stages, thirsty democracy but regardless, still a Democracy, and looking around right now in the middle east that’s pretty impressive by any standards.

My point of view or analysis or whatever you may wish to call it, is in simple terms, take precautions this time around. Let’s make sure that the Kurds strengthen their non-recognized Kurdish borders before they strive to build Iraq’s. Let’s make sure the Kurdish army is stationed in Kurdistan and not Fallujah or wherever they want to disperse the Kurdish troops so they are weakened and separated. Let the Kurdish leaders sit proudly at the head of a Kurdish parliament and not on the sidelines in Baghdad behind an Arab nationalist president. Don’t depend on an ally that is only looking for a way out. The aftermath of these elections is just another chapter in history that looks very ominous for the Kurds. As Kurds we need to take precautions and hopefully we will be proven wrong. Let us simply learn from the past and the hands we have been dealt.

Now if you will excuse me I have to go and register to vote, I always leave these things to the last minute.