KurdistanObserver.com

Three Part Government Only Solution In Iraq

Jan 12, 2006 The Spectator

With last month’s Iraq elections and the dawning of a new year, the hope existed that the violent insurgency would wind down since the three major ethnic and religious groups voted in large numbers. However, as the facts last week demonstrated, the need for a new plan on how to govern is sorely needed.

The idea of a democratic, stable Iraq seems further away now than it had before the most recent elections. The call for American troop withdrawals comes at a time when civil war is not a distant possibility, but looks more and more like a clear probability.

One solution to prevent a possible civil war is to create three, semi-independent states under a weak federal government similar to the split of power implemented in Bosnia. Iraq will not survive as a republic with limited local power and a strong central government in Baghdad. A three-person presidency in Baghdad with limited oversight over the rest of the country would serve a greater purpose than that of a strong central government.

A major reason for this need of semi-independent states is that Kurdistan in the north of Iraq gained de-facto independence in 1991 and has had a relatively stable government for the past 15 years. However, if Kurdistan became a fully independent state, it would bring with it another slew of unanswered questions. The Kurds have sizeable communities in Turkey, Iran and Syria, and none of these governments have shown any support for an independent Kurdistan. The threat of invasion by Turkey would be a distinct possibility if full independence is achieved.

Creating a loose union of independent states within Iraq would allow for a system which, while not perfect, would allow for more freedom than a strong central government.

To understand the current problems faced in Iraq, one must also look at the creation of Iraq in 1921 by the British occupation forces. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, Britain occupied Iraq and after a bloody insurgency, created Iraq out of the three Ottoman provinces. The reason for this creation was not that these three provinces wanted to be united, but they were united due to the fact that they were all British possessions. This unwillingness toward unification should be taken into account.

Today, the main issues facing Iraq are not long-standing ethnic or religious conflicts. The very basics of life are still the main problems facing many Iraqis. The need for a stable economy, a fair justice system and domestic security are the most necessary conditions for peace in Iraq. These can be achieved faster and more effectively by implementing regional autonomous governments than a central government.

Iraq will find peace once the needs of its citizens are taken into account. Three republics must be able to take care of these needs while also respecting one another. A strong central government in Baghdad would inevitably be run by one of the three major ethnic groups, most likely the Shiites, given the recent election results. Ethnic animosities could be used to deny major segments of the Iraqi population a stable and peaceful life.

Instead of advocating for a strong central government in Baghdad, the United States should advocate for a united Iraq similar to Bosnia. After the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, Bosnia plunged into a civil war, which killed an estimated 200,000 people across the region and displaced many more from their homes.

At the Dayton Accords in 1995, the United States was able to negotiate the end of the civil war. Part of the agreement created two republics inside a united Bosnia, the SerbRepublic and the Muslim/Croatian republic.

More than 10 years later, Bosnia has been steadily rebuilt and has been mostly free of any major violence. An unlikely compromise created a situation in which Bosnia now has relative peace and can look forward to applying European Union membership within the next decade as well as formally uniting the republic under a central government.

A loose federation of sovereign states in Iraq will allow the nation to rebuild, reconstruct, and heal the wounds of a bloody insurgency. While not perfect, three autonomous regions would allow for the reconstruction to become more effective and accomplish its goal of improving the lives of Iraqi citizens more rapidly.

Once these needs are taken care of and peace is enjoyed, then issues of unification should be discussed. Creating a unified Iraq must come willingly from the Iraqi people, and not be imposed by a central government or foreign powers.

In order to look toward the future, we must learn from the mistakes made in the past and improve upon them.