Kurdish Issue Again Divides U.S., Turkey
By UMIT ENGINSOY, WASHINGTON And BURAK EGE BEKDIL, ANKARA
USA DefenseNews
The relationship between the United States and Turkey hit a new low last week
when Washington sided with Iraqi Kurds, flatly rejecting Ankara’s calls to delay
a referendum planned for later this year in northern Iraq’s oil-rich city of
Kirkuk.
Heightened tensions between the NATO allies
over Iraq also may have an adverse impact on arms deals, analysts warned.
Iraq’s 2005 constitution calls for a referendum
before the end of 2007 to determine the future status of Kirkuk, which sits on
40 percent of the country’s oil resources and is home to Kurds, Sunni Arabs,
ethnic Turkish Turkmen and Christians. Viewing Kirkuk as capital of their
autonomous region in the north, Kurds are insisting on holding the referendum on
time.
But Turkey, Sunni Arabs and Turkmen say that
more than 100,000 Kurds have flocked into Kirkuk since the 2003 Iraq war,
altering the city’s demographic structure, and that a referendum under such
circumstances would not be fair.
Kurds counter that their kinsmen, who had been
drawn out of the area during Saddam Hussein’s forced Arabization campaign in the
1980s and 1990s, now are returning under new Iraqi laws.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said Jan. 15 that the referendum, if held, could lead to more violence and even
a regional conflict.
“Turkey cannot just sit idly and watch the
demographic structure of Kirkuk change,” he warned.
Ankara wants the referendum delayed for at least five years and the creation of
a special status for Kirkuk. But Washington joined Kurdish calls for holding the
referendum this year.
“There are mechanisms in the Iraqi constitution
for determining the status of Kirkuk, and we certainly expect the Iraqi
government to continue with those plans,” U.S. State Department spokesman Tom
Casey told reporters Jan. 16.
Turkey is wary of Iraqi Kurds’ aspirations for
independence, fearing that a Kurdish state with vast oil assets in neighboring
northern Iraq may prompt its own restive Kurds to secede.
Both Turkey and Iraqi Kurds sought to influence
Washington’s position before President George W. Bush announced his new Iraq
strategy Jan.10. Under the new plan, Bush wants to send more than 20,000
additional troops to Iraq to boost security in Baghdad and the country’s lawless
west.
Promoting Bush’s new strategy in Congress,
Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice presented
the possibility of Turkish military intervention into northern Iraq among
potential regional catastrophes in the event of U.S. failure in Iraq.
Washington’s continued backing for the Kirkuk
referendum also means a clear rejection of a suggestion last month by the Iraq
Study Group, a panel of prominent Republican and Democratic statesmen, which
also called for delaying the referendum.
Analysts say that all this is bad news for U.S.-Turkish defense industry ties.
“Past experience shows that arms deals suffer
at times of increased tensions with Turkey,” said one U.S. industry source in
Washington. “If the situation worsens, Turkey will become reluctant to buy U.S.
systems whenever possible, and Washington may bring additional restrictions to
the sale of critical systems.”
Defense analysts said that unless the
relationship deteriorates dramatically, Turkey’s top defense program — a plan to
buy 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, worth more than $11 billion over the next 20
years — should survive.
“But for smaller programs, Turks may seek non-U.S.
suppliers,” one Ankara-based analyst said. “As Turkey’s relations with the
European Union also are not good at a time when Turkish accession talks are
faltering, Russians could benefit from the situation in some cases, including
the acquisition of air-defense systems and a military satellite. Israel may also
benefit.”
U.S. supply missions to Iraq and Afghanistan
through Turkey and other elements of military cooperation also could be badly
affected, the analyst said.
Iraq and procurement matters are expected to be
key agenda items when Army Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the Turkish General
Staff, visits Washington in mid-February for talks with top U.S. defense
officials. Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul also will meet with Rice in the U.S.
capital next month. •
E-mail: uenginsoy@defensenews.com, bbekdil@defensenews.com.
