Military
Intervention in Iraq: A Disastrous Idea
By: SAHIN ALPAY /
Zaman Jan 29, 2007
Speculation that Turkey is
preparing for a military intervention in northern Iraq abounds. Last Tuesday the
Turkish Parliament held a closed session to debate developments in Iraq.
The intervention is thought
to have not one but several declared and undeclared objectives: to finish off
the Kurdistan Workers? Party (PKK) in Iraq, to prevent Kirkuk from becoming a
Kurdish city, to protect the rights of the Turkmen minority and to stop the
Iraqi Kurds from advancing on the road to independence.
According to a report by
Lale Sarıibrahimoğlu, the Bush administration is about to allow the Turkish
military to cross into northern Iraq for an operation against the PKK in the
region. The operation will last no more than two weeks and is expected to take
place in late February or early March. The cross-border operation is to be
carried out by airborne Turkish troops supported by attack helicopters. The US
administration believes that the Iraqi Kurdish leadership will not object to
such a US-coordinated intervention. (Today's Zaman, Jan. 22, 2007.)
What results can we expect
from an operation targeting the PKK in Iraq. During the 1990s the Turkish
military conducted a number of operations in northern Iraq, all with the support
of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership, but the objective of finishing off the PKK
could not be achieved. Today the Iraqi Kurdish leadership considers a Turkish
military intervention in the region to be a threat to its autonomy and
aspirations of eventual independence. They are not at all happy with the
existence of the PKK but they want to avoid a war pitting Kurd against Kurd.
They tell Ankara that the best way to render the PKK ineffective is to take
measures that would enable militants to return to normal, civilian life. In
these circumstances a military operation, even if it is carried out with the
approval of the US, is not likely to be any more effective than previous ones.
Sarıibrahimoğlu reports that in fact neither Ankara nor Washington are convinced
that the operation would achieve its objective. The Turkish military, however,
thinks if something is not done about the PKK in northern Iraq, this would
damage the confidence the Turkish people have in the military. On the other
hand, the Bush administration's intentions behind allowing the operation are to
make up for some of the lost credibility in Turkish public opinion.
For a moment, let us take
the supposition that Turkey will intervene for the sake of Kirkuk seriously.
Ankara may be justified in insisting that Kirkuk belongs to all its ethnic
groups, that Kirkuk's oil is owned by all Iraqis, and that the territorial
integrity of Iraq must be preserved. It is certainly entitled to say so and
should do all in its power to achieve these objectives by diplomatic means.
Iraq's future, however, is eventually going to be decided by its people and not
by any outsiders. It is evident that even the superpower that could invade the
country, topple the regime and destroy the state is unable to shape the future
of Iraq.
There are good reasons
to believe that the vast majority of Turkey,s Kurds do not want to separate from
Turkey but want to gain full democratic rights within Turkey. Turkey's Kurds,
however, just like the Turkmen of Turkey, are concerned with the fate of their
kinsmen in Iraq. They certainly do not want the Kurds of Iraq to once again fall
under dictatorial rule. Turkey has so far avoided any involvement in the
invasion of Iraq. Such involvement carried the risk of a ?war within a war,?
that is to say, a Turkish-Kurdish war with disastrous consequences for Turkey's
democracy and economy, which so far the PKK has not been able to provoke. A
Turkish military intervention in Iraq for the sake of Kirkuk today would almost
certainly lead to such disastrous consequences. The most effective way for
Ankara to achieve its objectives in Iraq is to win the trust and friendship of
the Iraqi Kurds. Turkey's most effective power is not its military but its soft
power; its ability to attract and persuade others to adopt its norms and goals.
If Turkey continues to strengthen and consolidate its democratic regime and thus
serve as a model, the broad autonomy or eventual independence of Iraqi Kurds may
not be against but in favor of Turkey's interests.
