Sea
Change Needed on Ankara's Foreign Policy Plate
Cem Sey
Jan 30, 2007
The New Anatolian
Next week Washington
will witness a wave of high-level visitors from Turkey. Both Gen. Yasar
Buyukanit, the chief of the General Staff, and Abdullah Gul, the foreign
minister, will be in the U.S. capital.
At the same time there are several problems on the plates of both countries.
Most of them are defined from the view of Ankara: the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK) in northern Iraq, Kirkuk, and the Armenian problem.
For Turkey's part, there may be clarity on these questions. At least the
majority of the Turkish public seems to share the same ideas in these areas:
"The PKK has to be eliminated militarily, Kirkuk should never be part of a
Kurdish entity, and the U.S Congress shouldn't pass any resolutions claiming
there was a genocide of the Armenians." This may be sum up these "clear" ideas
in the Turkish public.
But seen from outside, none of these "clear ideas" seems so clear.
Americans -- and even Europeans -- understand that the presence of the PKK just
over the border is disturbing Turkey. The Americans have other problems in Iraq
to deal with, though, and they don't need any more. This dilemma ties their
hands in terms of military action against the PKK. Not only that they can't
fight the PKK, but also that they can't tolerate any cross-border Turkish
military operation, because the Kurds are their only real allies in Iraq. The
Kurds in Iraq are very suspicious about any Turkish military action on their
soil. Probably, therefore, U.S. diplomacy will try to bring Turkish and Kurdish
officials together to work out this problem. Which, in turn, is seen in Ankara
as a delaying tactic.
Kirkuk is definitely an Iraqi city. So Turkey really isn't in any position to
influence decisions about its future, and it seems to almost everybody else in
the world as normal that this question should be dealt with, as foreseen in the
Iraqi constitution. The U.S. may listen to Turkey. Even the Iraqis could listen
to what Ankara has to say about Kirkuk. But nobody believes that Turkey could or
should do more than just express its opinion. But Turkey, in fact, says nothing.
Ankara is just warning or sometimes even issuing threats. What Turkey wants in
Kirkuk to happen, is -- at least for the public -- not clear.
The Armenian question is a question only in Turkey. Everywhere else not only
politicians but also the public believe that there was a genocide of Armenians
in Anatolia. This is nothing new and won't change in the future. Even if a
committee of historians were assembled someday, the result would really be no
different. So outside Turkey not condemning the genocide is seen as a great
courtesy to Turkey, and one which becomes more disturbing as time passes.
So one can say that nobody really understands what Turkey wants.
In all of these problems Turkey can and has to take some steps forward to change
the political climate in which it operates.
Further reforms to ease future steps on the PKK issue -- like preparing a
sincere amnesty for PKK members and lowering the 10 percent hurdle in the
election laws, and so allowing the political entities preferred by the Kurdish
part of the population to take seats in the Turkish Parliament -- would change
the mood of all other parties involved.
Turkey very often states that it has profound national interests in Kirkuk. This
phrase alone doesn't persuade anybody to think about steps other than applying
the Iraqi constitution. If Ankara wants to stop these developments, it has to
explain what these interests are and has to find some other logical reason than
stopping the emergence of a Kurdish political entity in the region.
And on the Armenian question, Turkey has to move forward again. Pragmatic
politicians and diplomats know that you have to talk to your foes to solve the
problems you have with them. Thus, Turkey has to begin talks with Yerevan to
open the border. It's at the negotiating table that you mention your conditions.
If Turkey can bring itself to take this step, then the international community
will be truly shocked. Because nobody believes that Turkey can talk to the
Armenians. Everybody believes it's the denial policy that prevents Turkey from
negotiating with its difficult neighbor.
Next week, unless Gul and Buyukanit have some kind of pragmatic approaches to
present, they won't be able to seriously change anything. I doubt very much
this will happen.
