By: Prof Goran Nowicki
Mar 12, 2006

In "Turkey Playing with Fire" [2], I looked at some aspects of Kurdish-Turkish relations. Since then there have been developments in Kurdish Turkish relations and the possibility of the visit of President Barzani to Turkey. In this second part, I look at potential moves in front of Kurds and Turks in the region. Is there a scenario in which both Turks and Kurds win? And how to achieve that win-win scenario?

HISTORY OF KURDS AND PERSIANS

For the past 2500 years, Kurds and their ancestors the Medes have been struggling against the domination of the Persians. Kurds have not given up the struggle and at the same time they have witnessed the rise and fall of empires and arrival of new neighbors especially to their North.

Over the past 3500 years, in the north of their territories, they have seen the rise and fall of the Hittites, the fall and rise of the Persians, and then the Greeks spearheaded by Alexander and more recently, the rise and fall of the Ottoman Turks. The last have decided to stay for good and become Permanent neighbors of the Kurds.

History tells us that the short living northern neighbors of the Kurds have been a source of threat and a source of opportunity for them. The Hittites joined the Assyr ians to bring down the Mitanni's first Indo-Iranian civilization in the world. The Hittites themselves disappeared later and the Medes successors of Mitanni managed to defeat their Assyrian enemies and resurrect the glory of Mitanni and establish their capital Hang-Mitanni in present Hamadan. The past and present names of the city reveal the transformation of the Mitanni into Mad (i.e. Medes).

The Medes established the second Indo-Iranian civilization in the region and introduced a satrap-based notion of federalism in government. This is the time period that the Persians come into the picture and they manage to sneak their way into the imperial system and replace the Medes rulers in the empire and corrupt the Mitraism religion of the empire that linked the empire to the Mit-ra worshiper Mit-annis. The Persians manage to rewrite the history and to destroy the his tory of ancestors of the Kurds, the Medes and the Mitannis.

The Persians adopted the federal satrap structure and extended the empire to new boundaries and even invaded Greece. But the infighting over the empire, the move towards a more centralized power-sharing brought the inevitable defeat of the Persians by the Greeks and put an end to more than1000 years of Mitanni-Medes-Persian empires.

The arrival of Parthians and Romans in the scene started a new cycle in history of the Kurds who were religiously and linguistically more affiliated with the Mitra kings (Mitrades =Mehrdad) of Parthia than the later Zoroastrian Persian Sasanids. Once again the Sasanid Persians manage to sneak their way into the Parthian imperial system and again corrupt the federal empire system by gradually bringing a more centralized system and make it vulnerable to the invasion of Sunni Arabs.

Like Persians, the Kurds became followers of a new religion and they adopted Sunni Islam. The Persians later gradually converted to Shiism as the Shiite clergy closely collaborated with the rising Mongols in the region and eliminated the followers of other Islamic sects to the extent that the Sunni scholars referred to the Shiites as heretics to be killed.

KURDS, TURKS A ND PERSIANS

In this historical context, we see the arrival of the Turks in present Turkey and the start of the Safavid-Ottoman era in which Shiism became the state religion of Safavids and was further strengthened. A new chapter of collaboration between Kurds and Ottoman Turks started based on religious grounds. A collaboration that put Sunni Kurds at odds with the Shiite Persians and put the Sunni Ottoman Turks at odds with Turkmans and Shiite Turks ruling as Safavid kings.

Although at present the Islamists are in power in both Iran and Turkey, but the competition between Iran and Turkey is not based on religion as in the Ottoman-Safavid era, at least from Turkish perspective. Iran plays two games: playing her Shiism cards for Persians and Azeris and playing Iranian nationalism card for the Kurds, Baloch and Afghans at the same time.

The Turks after WWI became secular and have not been playing the Sunni Ottoman card for almost a century. Even now, the Turks are interested in joining with the Shiite Azeri Turks and Turkmans and playing religious card will be against that goal, but they can play the Sunni card for Arabs and Kurds to gain in the region.

The Islamists in power in Turkey play the Turkish nationalist card for Azeris, but they are making the mistake of playing the same card with Kurds that put them into conflict with them and turning the game into a zero-sum game: i.e. Kurdish win is equal to Turkish loss and Kurdish loss is equal to Turkish win. In reality the game is a loss-loss game for both Kurdish and Turkish players.

The Turks have been manipulated by the Persians to play this nationalistic anti-Kurd game in the region and in the background the Persians have supported the Kurdish struggle in Turkey as a guarantee to distract Turkey from focusing on Azeri Turkish regions. The Persians have been manipulating the Kurds too and the situation of the Kurds in Iran clearly shows the real intentions of the Persians.

Both Kurds and Turks in Turkey are being manipulated by the Persians and clearly the winner of this game are neither Kurds nor Turks, the winners are the Persians. The Kurds and Turks are in a loss-loss situation. Are they aware of this situation and how can they turn the table ?

FROM A LOSS-LOSS to A WIN-WIN GAME

In [2], I highlighted a scenario in which the Kurds and Turks in Turkey will win if they respect each other's rights and don't rock the boat which is heading for Turkish EU membership. They can join the EU club together.

Let's assume that that move does not work for different reasons. Is there another Win-Win strategy for Kurds and Turks in the region? Or they will decide to fall back to a zero-sum game that only one party can win?

In a zero-sum game, Turkey and his allies will face many difficulties if they want to win without bringing the Kurds to their side. In [3], I highlighted a scenario in a zero-sum game in which the Turks will be the only losers of the developments in Iraq and Iran will be the ultimate winner of the invasion of Iraq. The question is whether Iran will manage to survive the remaining term of Bush's presidency to enjoy the fruits of victory in Afghanistan and Iraq?

So far, the sensitivity of Turkey towards Kurds has prevented interesting scenarios from materializing and has prevented the US from fully committing to a strategic relationship with the Kurds in the region. As a result, US is losing the end game in Iraq and the region; and the present instability and civil war in Iraq wi ll ultimately put an end to any plan for US to attack Iran.

As I wrote earlier in [2] "The present focus of Turkey on Kurdish land and Kurdish oil is against Turkish interests in the region and Turkey instead should focus on its 30 Millions Azeri kins in Iran, a policy which is more in line with the developments in the region."

US is partly to blame, because US has failed to alig n the Turkish and Kurdish interests in the region and bring the two parties on a table to struck a deal in which both Kurds and Turks win. Such an opportunity presently exists in Iran if US and the Kurds in coordination with Turkey spearhead an attack on Iran with the goal of establishing a liberated government in the western provinces of Iran consisting of Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Ilam and Khuzistan.

Such a liberated Zagros region then can decide to exchange the Turkish Azeri regions in Iran with the Kurdish regions in Turkey and bring some sense and stability to the whole region. An immediate outcome of such a scenario will be the collapse of the Iranian regime. Iran after losing its western non-Persian regions will also be more stable and can concentrate on establishing a Persian country with links to Persian speaking regions in Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

This minimal change in the borders will pave the way for creation of a Turkic speaking union and an Iranian speaking union in the region. So the outcome of this is a more stable region.

This could be a win-win game and both Kurds and Turks can win in the region if they learn to play the game together based on the lessons from the 400 Ottoman history of Turkish Kurdish relations in the region.

REFERENCE

[1] Kurds Playing Judo with Turks, Kurdistan Observer, 22 Feb 2003.
[2] Turkey Playing with Fire, Kurdistan Observer, 2 Mar 2005.
[3] Chessboard of Middle East, Kurdistan Observer, 24 May 2005.