Fractured Iraq 'On The Brink Of Collapse'
May 16, 2007
Iraq is on the brink of collapse and it can no
longer be assumed that it will survive as a state, it is claimed today.
A report published by the respected
international relations think tank Chatham House, warns that the surge in US
troop levels this year has failed to stem the growth in violence, which seems
likely to "continue and intensify".
And it recommends a radical shift in U.S.-UK
policies, including reaching out to Sunni insurgent groups which oppose Al
Qaeda; bringing the movement led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr into the
political process; and recognising the legitimacy of Kurdish demands for
autonomy.
Although they might be "distinctly unpalatable"
to Washington and London, the report's author, Dr Gareth Stansfield, warns that
strategies of this kind are needed to prevent the collapse of Iraq.
His report, Accepting Realities in Iraq,
describes the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki
as "largely irrelevant" to political, security and economic life across large
swathes of the country.
The country has fractured into regional power
bases, where power rests in the hands of local sectarian, ethnic or tribal
groups, he says.
Al Qaeda has developed "a very real presence"
in the major cities of the centre and north of the country. Iraq suffers not
from one but many civil wars and insurgencies, which pit communities and
organisations against one another, the Baghdad government and the US-led
multi-national forces.
Dr Stansfield, associate professor in Middle
East Politics at the University of Exeter, writes that 2007 will be a "critical
time" for Iraq, with things likely to get much worse before they improve.
"It is time for a full appraisal of the
realities in Iraq," he says. "On current evidence these realities are very
disturbing and it can no longer be assumed that Iraq will survive as a united
entity.
The paper accuses each of Iraq's major
neighbouring states - Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - of having reasons "for
seeing the instability there continue, and each uses different methods to
influence developments".
"The four years since the removal of Saddam's
regime have been deeply unsuccessful for the Multinational Force in Iraq and the
new Iraqi government.
"Iraq's attempted transition from dictatorship
to democracy has been harrowing and multifaceted violence appears likely to
continue and intensify.
"It can be argued that Iraq is on the verge of
being a failed state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and
fragmentation."
Despite US President George Bush's deployment
of more than 20,000 additional troops earlier this year in the hope of making a
speedy impact on security, overall fatality rates appear to have increased, says
the report.
