Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida
elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown
with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for
full military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and
it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already
committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US
official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile
attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket
attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are
directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the
Iranian government]."
The official said
US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer
offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia
allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a
US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase
the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in
September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to
Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge"
of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick
up from their side. There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially
Iranian-sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can
see that from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the huge stockpiles
of Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last couple of months. The
relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid," the
official said.
"It often comes down to individuals, and
people constantly move around. For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called
resistance groups use Salafi jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the
whole Iran- al-Qaida linkup is very sinister."
Iran has maintained close links to Iraq's
Shia political parties and militias but has previously eschewed collaboration
with al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents.
US officials now say they have firm evidence
that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a
parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its
previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the
Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces.
Tehran's strategy to discredit the US surge
and foment a decisive congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in
scope and not confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence,
the senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination with
Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi as well as
Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, he added. Iran
was also expanding contacts across the board with paramilitary forces and
political groups, including Kurdish parties such as the PUK, a US ally.
"Their strategy takes into account all these
various parties. Iran is playing all these different factions to maximise its
future control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator
is Syria which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to
come across the border," the official said.
Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on
its own territory could be taken only at the highest political level in
Washington, the official said. But he indicated that American patience was
wearing thin.
Warning that the US was "absolutely
determined" to hit back hard wherever it was challenged by Iranian proxies or
agents inside Iraq, he cited the case of five alleged members of the
Revolutionary Guard's al-Quds force detained in Irbil in January. Despite
strenuous protests from Tehran, which claims the men are diplomats, they have
still not been released.
"Tehran is behaving like a racecourse
gambler. They're betting on all the horses in the race, even on people they
fundamentally don't trust," a senior administration official in Washington
said. "They don't know what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they're hedging
their bets."
The administration official also claimed that
notwithstanding recent US and British overtures, Syria was still collaborating
closely with Iran's strategy in Iraq.
"80% to 90%" of the foreign jihadis entering
Iraq were doing so from Syrian territory, he said.
Despite recent diplomatic contacts, and an
agreement to hold bilateral talks at ambassadorial level in Baghdad next week,
US officials say there has been no let-up in hostile Iranian activities,
including continuing support for violence, weapons smuggling and training.
"Iran is perpetuating the cycle of sectarian
violence through support for extra-judicial killing and murder cells. They
bring Iraqi militia members and insurgent groups into Iran for training and
then help infiltrate them back into the country. We have plenty of evidence
from a variety of sources. There's no argument about that. That's just a
fact," the senior official in Baghdad said.
In trying to force an American retreat,
Iran's hardline leadership also hoped to bring about a humiliating political
and diplomatic defeat for the US that would reduce Washington's regional
influence while increasing Tehran's own.
But if Iran succeeded in "prematurely"
driving US and British forces out of Iraq, the likely result would be a
"colossal humanitarian disaster" and possible regional war drawing in the
Sunni Arab Gulf states, Syria and Turkey, he said.
Despite such concerns, or because of them,
the US welcomed the chance to talk to Iran, the senior administration official
said. "Our agenda starts with force protection in Iraq," he said. But there
were many other Iraq-related issues to be discussed. Recent pressure had shown
that Iran's behaviour could be modified, the official claimed: "Last winter
they were literally getting away with murder."
But tougher action by security forces in Iraq
against Iranian agents and networks, the dispatch of an additional aircraft
carrier group to the Gulf and UN security council resolutions imposing
sanctions had given Tehran pause, he said.
Washington analysts and commentators predict
that Gen Petraeus's report to the White House and Congress in early September
will be a pivotal moment in the history of the four-and-a-half-year war - and
a decision to begin a troop drawdown or continue with the surge policy will
hinge on the outcome. Most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress believe
Iraq is in the grip of a civil war and that there is little that a continuing
military presence can achieve. "Political will has already failed. It's over,"
a former Bush administration official said.
A senior adviser to Gen Petraeus reported
this month that the surge had reduced violence, especially sectarian killings,
in the Baghdad area and Sunni-dominated Anbar province. But the adviser
admitted that much of the trouble had merely moved elsewhere, "resulting in
spikes of activity in Diyala [to the north] and some areas to the south of the
capital". "Overall violence is at about the same level [as when the surge
began in February]."
Iranian officials flatly deny US and British
allegations of involvement in internal violence in Iraq or in attacks on
coalition forces. Interviewed in Tehran recently, Mohammad Reza Bagheri,
deputy foreign minister for Arab affairs with primary responsibility for
Iran's policy in Iraq, said: "We believe it would be to the benefit of both
the occupiers and the Iraqi people that they [the coalition forces] withdraw
immediately."
