Kurdistan Observer

While Turkey is in favor of Iraq's territorial integrity officially, worries over the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq shows the necessity of a status quo change in northern Iraq.

Turkey welcomed the U.N. efforts and U.S. president Bush's statements, who said, "We will give one more chance to diplomacy and use diplomatic means again. If Iraq stops producing weapons of mass destruction and hands over its weapons, Saddam Hussein may stay in power."

This statement was welcomed by Turkey especially because of possible negative effects of a military operation on Turkey's economic situation, but, is this attitude, not to intervene in the region comply with Turkey's interests?

It seems that Turkey's contingency plans are ready and according to a public opinion research only 10 percent of the Turkish people support Turkish military intervention on Iraq, but also approximately 70 percent think that the Kurdish groups in the region are aiming to establish an independent state, and Turkey have to avert this formation.

The Iraqi issue dominated the heavy agenda of Turkey last week, at first General Franks came to Turkey and met with the military officials and Bush made a statement and said, "We will try diplomacy again, and afterwards Bush called President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and at last Kurdistan Democratic Party officials came to Ankara. This traffic shows that something is becoming concrete in these contacts or every part is trying to take a new stand after U.S. Administration's new approach. We have asked analysts the effects of Bush's statement and latest developments.

"If Saddam stays in power the Kurdish factions continue to strengthen in the region and this is not within the interests of Turkey," say analysts adding, "Also the Kurdish factions in the region seem bound by their faith to this military intervention."

Former Turkish Ambassador to Washington Nushet Kandemir evaluated the latest statements of Bush and the latest situation in the region for Turkish Daily News (TDN) and pointed out that the U.S. administration had recognized that to initiate an operation without taking the support of the international community would be difficult.

"It may be derived from the statements of Bush that this military intervention will not be as easy as estimated before. They also saw that this intervention might be beneficial in the short term, but in long term it will harm both the stability of the region and U.S. interests," said Kandemir.

Kandemir also evaluated the situation of Kurdish factions, and said, "The U.S. is planning to topple Saddam Hussein by using the Kurdish factions. The U.S. gave them military training, weapons and financial aid and via this way the U.S. helped the establishment of a de facto Kurdish state. Kurdish factions are now attempting to gain a legal ground for a state. It is difficult to anticipate what the results of these attempts will be."

Kandemir pointed out the decisiveness of Turkey and Turkey's recent active policy and said, "Turkey expresses its sensitiveness and decisiveness in the region to U.S. officials. Both military and civil Turkish officials are relating Turkey's stance to their U.S. counterparts, and the U.S. is aware of Turkey's sensitiveness. As you know a high ranking U.S. military official visited Turkey last week and President Bush called President Sezer."

Kandemir also commented on Turkey's approach in the region and evaluated, "Turkey is respecting Iraq's territorial integrity, and favors a consolidated Iraq with all its ethnic contributions. Turkey has no demand of its borders. Turkey's aim is to hamper the activities which is endangering its security. Turkey has no problem with the leader of Iraq, Saddam Hussein. Turkey is aiming for stability in the region with the contribution of all sides."

Kandemir also pointed out that Turkey cannot be in any type of activity which has no legal framework, "Since Turkey may face with such types of attempts against itself. But Turkey should take part in the attempts which may bring peace and stability to the region and may form a structure that will not cast any danger to Turkey's security," and added, "Kurdish factions in the region should show Turkey that they limited their independency seekings, and their aim is to maximize their autonomous status."

On the other hand Head of Foreign Policy Institute (Ankara based think-tank institution) Seyfi Tashan spoke to TDN on the issue and said military intervention if in favor of Turkey's interests because as the instability in northern Iraq continues the Kurdish factions are getting stronger even attempting to establish a Kurdish state.

Tashan stated the U.S. is now trying to legitimize its intervention via its attempts in the U.N., to adopt a resolution. "I think Iraq will comply with the resolution but Saddam will not comply with this resolution anyhow. But the U.S. seems to be determined. It is taking one step back but will perform an operation."