Is Iraq descending into chaos?

April 7, 2004

By: Dr. Nazhad Khasraw Hawramany

The chaotic scenes in Baghdad's slum Shia districts Al-Sadr and Al-Shuala  as well as other Shia southern Iraqi cities and the clashes of the illegal militia( Jaish-Almahdi) of the the firebrand militant Shia radical cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr with coalition forces is a new and dangerous escalation in Iraq just as the coalition is preparing to hand over sovereignty to an elected Iraqi authority by the 30th of June 2004. The Shia community is divided and is about to lose the chance of being a credible partner in the building of a new Iraq after ouster of Saddam Hussein, they are not possessing any clear agenda for their role in new Iraq and have been complacent about the intimidating and illegal actions of   the radical and fanatic Al-Sadr and his followers, who have terrorized the society in Baghdad and other southern Shia cities, trying to forcibly impose   Sharia law, harassing  university students that don`s wear Islamic head dress, bombing Movie theaters and liquor selling shops,   declaring their animosity towards the coalition and none-Shia members of Iraqi Governing Council, inciting hatred and violence, and trying to forge alliances with the most radical terrorist organizations in the middle East like the Lebanese Hisbullah and the Palestinian Hamas as well reactionary Iranian Mullahs from Qumm, obviously accommodating in their ranks   previous elements of Saddam`s security and Baath agents. The Shia religious clerics like Al-Sistani as well as Shia members of Iraqi Governing Council did turn a blind eye to the illegal actions and incitements by this radical organization instead of opposing the calls for violence and terror by this group. The other sections of Iraqi society mainly the Kurds and Sunnis must be now considering if its possible at all to work with Shia groups, who obviously want to build an Iranian style regime with close alliance to the most radical and terrorist elements in the region like Hisbullah and Hamas.

The radical cleric Al-Sadr, called the September 11 attacks by al-Qaida on USA as a gift from God, he called the new interim Iraqi Law a filthy constitution and vowed to oppose it, he called his organization the extended arm of Hisbullah and Hamas in Iraq, he and other Shia leaders are opposing UN attempts to prepare for general elections in Iraq. The followers of Al-Sadr are trying to overtake the authority in Iraq with force, they have occupied police stations, took control of city halls in southern Iraqi cities, are delivering street fights with coalition forces and threatening to spread violence and chaos to all parts of Iraq.

This group represents a real threat to the future of a democratic pluralistic and secular Iraq and is threatening to ignite a civil war between different ethnic and sectarian groups in Iraq, and no doubt is going to get any help it wants from regional countries like Iran and Syria who are adamant on destroying the democratic and civilized experiment in Iraq to save their own decaying regimes. Now its time for the representatives of the three main sections of Iraqi society, the Kurds, Arab Sunnis, and Arab Shias to condemn all acts of violence against coalition forces and new Iraqi police and security forces, they should unite to defeat such dangerous and radical undemocratic elements like Al-Sadr and his thugs as well as radical Sunni elements in Fallujah and Ramadi, otherwise Iraq could descend into chaos, which each group trying to defend its own interests, and if this unrest is not contained and is threatening to spread to other parts of Iraq, then the American administration should consider again if the three state solution is not the best solution for Iraq's impossible ethnic and religious mixture, then the Kurds will have their own independent secular democratic state in the north, the Sunnis can govern themselves in the centre without fear of Shia domination, and the Shia Arabs in the south must work out the best system that suit their interests. Without a clear formula to share the government and wealth in Iraq on equal basis between Kurds, Sunnis and Shias   and without fear of  domination or takeover by one group over others and without the spread of concepts of tolerance and respect of others rights, Thugs like of Al-Sadr or rogue cities like Fallujah will always manage to poison the atmosphere of piece , tolerance and reconciliation in Iraq and to dash away the hopes of a unified, pluralistic, federal, prosperous and democratic Iraq.

Dr.Nazhad Khasraw Hawramany
Switzerland